Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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Saturday: Cowboys' offensive line 'like a subway turnstile' (1:29)

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Which team will pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft? Through four weeks, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects the winless New York Jets with the best chances to get the top selection. The Jets took over the No. 1 spot after Week 5. The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, are now projected to pick No. 8 overall.

Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Oct. 20):

1. New York Jets (0-6)

Average draft position: 2.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 55.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95.6%


2. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

Average draft position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 78.8%


3. New York Giants (1-5)

Average draft position: 4.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.8%


4. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1)

Average draft position: 7.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.2%


5. Atlanta Falcons (1-5)

Average draft position: 7.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.3%


6. Washington Football Team (1-5)

Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.4%


7. Los Angeles Chargers (1-5)

Average draft position: 8.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 29.9%


8. Dallas Cowboys (2-4)

Average draft position: 9.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.7%


9. Miami Dolphins (3-3; from 1-5 HOU)

Average draft position: 9.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.1%


10. Minnesota Vikings (1-5)

Average draft position: 10.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.5%


11. Detroit Lions (2-3)

Average draft position: 11.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 48.5%


12. Denver Broncos (2-3)

Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.9%


13. Carolina Panthers (3-3)

Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.8%


14. Miami Dolphins (3-3)

Average draft position: 15.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22.4%


15. Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1)

Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.3%


16. New England Patriots (2-3)

Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15%


17. Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

Average draft position: 18.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.7%


18. San Francisco 49ers (3-3)

Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.7%


19. Cleveland Browns (4-2)

Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.1%


20. Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)

Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.7%


21. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.6%


22. Chicago Bears (5-1)

Average draft position: 21.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%


23. New Orleans Saints (3-2)

Average draft position: 21.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.5%


24. Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Average draft position: 21.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.6%


25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5; from 4-2 LAR)

Average draft position: 22.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.7%


26. Green Bay Packers (4-1)

Average draft position: 24.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


27. Tennessee Titans (5-0)

Average draft position: 25.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)

Average draft position: 236.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.3%


29. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0)

Average draft position: 26.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


30. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

Average draft position: 27.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


31. New York Jets (0-6; from 5-0 SEA)

Average draft position: 27.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


32. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)

Average draft position: 29.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%