If you're a fan of mixed martial arts (or just a good storyline, along with athletic feats of the highest caliber), this weekend's UFC Fight Night welterweight headliner between Rory MacDonald and Stephen Thompson in Ottawa, Canada, is a downright must-see.
MacDonald, 26, is on the last fight of his UFC contract, and he has elected to test free agency after Saturday. The outcome of the fight figures to have a significant impact on his upcoming negotiating power, and a win would earn him an undisputed tag of No. 1 contender in the division.
It would do the same for Thompson, 33, a former kickboxing world champion who is coming off an electric TKO win against former UFC champ Johny Hendricks in February.
Let's take a closer look at Saturday's event. Don't agree with these picks? Let MMA insider Brett Okamoto know on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main Event: Rory MacDonald (18-3)
vs. Stephen Thompson (12-1)
Welterweight
Odds: Thompson -115; MacDonald -105
Anyone late to the "Stephen Thompson is for real" school of thought got an eye-opening experience in February. Thompson didn't just beat Hendricks, the former UFC/NCAA wrestling champion -- he completely dominated him. That performance has made Thompson a betting favorite against MacDonald -- a scenario few would have predicted coming into 2016.
Everything that makes Thompson great was on display in that win over Hendricks. He's a very long kickboxer, absolutely lethal and unpredictable at a longer range. Opponents have to close that distance, which isn't easy because of his footwork, accurate counter boxing and ever-improving takedown defense. Hendricks has elite power and offensive wrestling, but he was quickly frustrated by Thompson's ability to dictate the range in that fight. When he started to press, things quickly went south.
MacDonald is under added pressure due to the contract situation, but few are better at sticking to a game plan. His pressure will be calculated, and he's also much bigger than Hendricks; the size difference between Hendricks and Thompson was pretty stunning once the cage door shut. MacDonald is the same height as Thompson, and he actually has a one-inch reach advantage. Size, clever feints and an efficient jab should help MacDonald close distance more effectively than previous Thompson opponents.
There's a good chance that MacDonald represents the most difficult style matchup for Thompson -- even more so than current welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. To tame Thompson's striking repertoire, an opponent has to walk him down and, ideally, trap him against the fence where his footwork and power are least effective. Lawler's combinations and sheer aggression might accomplish that, but I'm more apt to bet on MacDonald's measured, strategic approach, which will attack Thompson's legs and body as much as the head -- and he'll likely look for takedowns when they're available.
Thompson has never fought past the third round, but there's no strong evidence to suggest he can't. Even so, a dynamic kickboxing style such as his is always best on a full gas tank. I don't think there's a huge advantage for either welterweight in the fourth and fifth rounds, but if one does materialize, I'd expect it to go in MacDonald's favor.
Prediction: One of the best style matchups of the year. MacDonald via unanimous decision.