Here at last. Eleven months after Conor McGregor leaped out of the Octagon to confront Jose Aldo in Boston, the two will meet inside of it Saturday at UFC 194 in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. It's Brazil vs. Ireland and the most promoted fight in UFC history. McGregor hasn't lost in five years. Aldo hasn't lost in 10.
In the co-main event, middleweight champion Chris Weidman faces former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold. ESPN is here to break down those two fights and make picks on the rest of the blockbuster card. Don't agree with my predictions? Let me know (nicely, of course) on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Jose Aldo (25-1) vs. Conor McGregor (18-2)
featherweight championship unification
Odds: McGregor minus-140; Aldo plus-120
There are two people in the world who already know the outcome of this fight: Aldo and McGregor.
Rational human beings understand this fight could end in a countless number of ways. That's true of every fight, sure, but it's especially true of this one. Aldo is already an all-time great, and McGregor at least appears headed in that direction. If one holds a distinct, insurmountable stylistic advantage over the other, it hasn't been made obvious yet. This is an even matchup with land mines strewn all over the Octagon.
But what makes this fight so great is both Aldo and McGregor enter the cage on Saturday knowing they will win. These two have broken so many opponents, sometimes before the fight even started. So what's going to give? During his reign, Aldo has never faced a McGregor -- an enormous, versatile southpaw with such a wide arsenal of strikes and finishing ability. McGregor has perhaps never fought his equal, in terms of athleticism, technique and will.
We've talked a lot about the "wrestler question" in regard to McGregor, and, frankly, maybe Aldo needs to try to answer that question. It wasn't answered when McGregor fought Chad Mendes, who didn't prepare for the fight. He still took McGregor down and had some success on the ground. Was that evidence of McGregor's Kryptonite? What effect did a knee injury McGregor suffered before the fight have on him? Was it all part of a plan to allow Mendes to waste energy?
If I'm Aldo's camp, you best believe I'm seeking the answers to those questions. Aldo is one of the best strikers in UFC history, but what if McGregor has a weakness on his back? There's no shame in taking that route. Aldo has shown glimpses of effective offensive grappling. For someone who isn't known for this part of his game, he has good timing and instincts on his shots. Add that to McGregor's love for marching forward, which has seemed to grow in recent fights, and you have a recipe for a potential advantage. There might be a concern of Aldo gassing, however. He's not known for outstanding endurance. In fact, he's kind of known for the opposite.
Minus his last fight against Mendes, McGregor fights so calmly. Even when he's throwing wild-looking spinning techniques, his balance is centered. He gets finished throwing one strike, and he's immediately ready to throw another. They all hurt, and he knows they all hurt. It's why he's such a proven finisher. McGregor hits you in the ribs one time, you never want to be hit in the ribs again. So next time he throws a punch, you cover the ribs and eat one to the chin. That's typically the order it goes for McGregor -- kicks to the body and midsection gradually give way to the straight left hand.
We've gone six paragraphs into this breakdown and have not discussed Aldo's leg kicks. He has developed a good jab during his residency as UFC champion, but that rear-leg kick, which will target the inside of McGregor's right leg because of his southpaw stance, is always a potential game-changer. If Aldo plants that murderous kick just above McGregor's lead knee? He won't be able to allow too many of those. McGregor also seems a little too comfortable taking a punch. His hands are low, a trademark of a good counter puncher, but he should be careful. McGregor won't have the same athletic and reach advantages he's used to in this matchup.
Both of these featherweights have difficult weight cuts, and both have expressed interest time and again of fighting at lightweight. As part of the UFC's new anti-doping program, both will be required to hydrate without the use of IVs for the first time. We already mentioned Aldo's questionable cardio in a five-round fight. How about McGregor? It's something we've never seen from him before. He's so well-prepared and willing to set a ridiculous pace, you expect him to be able to do it for 25 minutes, but it's a bit of an unknown.
PREDICTION: He hasn't made an empty promise yet. McGregor by third-round TKO.
Co-main event
Chris Weidman (13-0) vs. Luke Rockhold (14-2)
Middleweight championship
Odds: Weidman minus-160; Rockhold plus-140
This matchup has been headline-worthy for years, but it's hard to argue this isn't the perfect time for it. Separated in age by exactly four months, these two were always destined to collide. The fact it's happening now, with a list of collective victims that includes Anderson Silva (twice), Lyoto Machida (twice), Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Tim Kennedy and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza? Like I said: perfect.
Weidman has to be thinking he's the only orthodox middleweight on the planet. Rockhold fights southpaw, as did Weidman's previous three opponents. It's safe to say he's comfortable seeing the straight left hand and rear kick by now, which is noteworthy. Rockhold's single most dangerous weapon is probably that left kick, and Weidman has been preparing for it in camp since mid-2013.
Both of these middleweights are best when applying pressure. Weidman's approach is a methodical, controlled attack, whereas Rockhold gives you more of a sense he's making things up as he goes. Some storylines are manufactured, but their fighting styles fit in perfectly with this East Coast-West Coast rivalry: Weidman's serious, workmanlike pressure versus Rockhold's more free-spirited flash.
Rockhold likes to lead, which is interesting, considering how often he talks about sparring his much bigger AKA teammates such as light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. The way those two fight Rockhold in the gym has to be different than how opponents fight him in the cage. As a middleweight, Rockhold is enormous. He's used to being the bigger man and getting his way when he wishes to come forward. How will he respond if Weidman, a more decorated wrestler with a similar commitment to moving forward, forces him to take a step back? It's not that Weidman can back him up the entire fight, but it's more likely than with his previous opponents.
They are both grapplers who have evolved into incredible strikers, but if one is more apt to wrestle it's going to be Weidman, especially if Rockhold can make things messy and actually get Weidman out of his comfort zone. Weidman will go to the wrestling mat well before Rockhold will. Rockhold seems to feel the same way, and he has repeatedly made remarks directly to Weidman regarding his wrestling game not working. Maybe he's planting a mental seed.
PREDICTION: Weidman's pressure gets it done. Another title defense, this time via unanimous decision.
Rest of the main card
Ronaldo Souza (22-3) vs. Yoel Romero (10-1), middleweights
Oh look, another impossible fight to predict. This event has a few of those. Souza is more proven in the cage, but Romero has been so impressive lately.
PREDICTION: Romero by third-round TKO.
Demian Maia (21-6) vs. Gunnar Nelson (14-1-1), welterweights
One of the most interesting grappling matchups of the year. Maia is more decorated and the bigger man. Nelson seems to be more on the rise.
PREDICTION: Maia by decision.
Max Holloway (14-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-11), featherweights
Stephens is a proven hard hitter, but Holloway has more weapons, not to mention momentum -- with seven consecutive wins -- if you believe in that kind of thing.
PREDICTION: Holloway by second-round KO.