Projected NFL draft order for 2022: Who has the No. 1 pick?

play
Ben Roethlisberger evades questions about his NFL future (0:28)

Ben Roethlisberger says he's taking things "one game at a time" and not thinking about what will come after this season. (0:28)

The Detroit Lions won their first game of the 2021 season in Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit's chances to pick No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft have fallen from 77.9% to 51.2%, according to the updated first-round projections from the ESPN Football Power Index. Things could get interesting with the draft order if the Lions were to win another game this season (both the Texans and Jaguars have just two wins) -- but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are currently projected to have three top-15 picks, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts -- the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz's playing time. After spraining both ankles in Week 2, Wentz has played nearly every snap since.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Dec. 7):

1. Detroit Lions (1-10-1)

Average draft position: 1.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 51.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.3%


2. Houston Texans (2-10)

Average draft position: 2.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 28.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.1%


3. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Average draft position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 98.1%


4. New York Jets (3-9)

Average draft position: 3.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.0%


5. New York Giants (via 4-8 CHI)

Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.6%


6. New York Giants (4-8)

Average draft position: 7.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.1%


7. Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.5%


8. Carolina Panthers (5-7)

Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.3%


9. New York Jets (via 4-8 SEA)

Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.9%


10. Philadelphia Eagles (via 6-7 MIA)

Average draft position: 12.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.9%


11. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Average draft position: 13.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 32.4%


12. New Orleans Saints (5-7)

Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.4%


13. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6)

Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <1.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.4%


14. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.0%


15. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1)

Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.2%


16. Denver Broncos (6-6)

Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.0%


17. Washington Football Team (6-6)

Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.0%


18. Cleveland Browns (6-6)

Average draft position: 16.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.2%


19. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

Average draft position: 18.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.3%


20. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

Average draft position: 19.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.7%

* Conditional pick: Will become Eagles' pick if Colts quarterback Carson Wentz plays 75% of the team's offensive snaps this season. He has played 97.6% of snaps through Week 13.


21. Miami Dolphins (via 6-6 SF)

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.1%


22. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)

Average draft position: 23.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


23. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

Average draft position: 24.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


24. Detroit Lions (via 8-4 LAR)

Average draft position: 24.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


25. Buffalo Bills (7-5)

Average draft position: 24.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


26. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

Average draft position: 25.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


27. Tennessee Titans (8-4)

Average draft position: 25.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


28. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

Average draft position: 25.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


29. New England Patriots (9-4)

Average draft position: 27.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


30. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Average draft position: 27.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

Average draft position: 28.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%


32. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)

Average draft position: 28.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: <0.1%