I'm not somebody whose view of sport is framed through the betting markets, but occasionally I'll see the odds surrounding this or that AFL game and wonder if I'm missing something.
And I've had that experience again this week in the lead-up to Saturday night's MCG clash between Richmond and St Kilda.
The Tigers have played one more game than the Saints but even so have just five-and-a-half wins to St Kilda's eight. The Saints are in fifth spot on the ladder and the Tigers 12th. Even the MCG venue shouldn't be tilting things the Tigers' way given this year they've won only two of their eight games there, while the Saints have won four out of five there since 2021.
Yet Richmond will go in a clear $1.74 favourite, St Kilda paying $2.10. What am I not getting here? Indeed, I could actually be having this argument with myself, because after some agonising, I've also ended up tipping Richmond to win.
Does it say more about the Tigers or the Saints? That we're still refusing to let go of the idea that Richmond, having won three premierships in a four-season span from 2017-20, is somehow still a sleeping giant of sorts? Or is there a decided "buyer beware" feeling about St Kilda?
I've been very loath to jump off the Richmond bandwagon, tipping the Tigers preseason to reach the grand final. Come Round 7, and a defeat in Melbourne to Gold Coast, a fifth loss in a row, that seemed pretty stupid. But what about now?
Since then, there's been a good win over Geelong and victories on the road over GWS and Fremantle. There's been narrow defeats against Port Adelaide and Essendon, the former now second on the ladder after 10 wins on the trot, the latter clearly improved.
All up, five of Richmond's seven losses have been by 18 points or less. Even without a score of injured key players, the Tigers have been nothing less than competitive.
St Kilda? Well, the Saints' spirited start to this season under Ross Lyon certainly caught much of the football world by surprise, but has it prompted a critical about face? Well, not yet, anyway. It's as though we still need convincing, a feeling only exacerbated by the Saints having gone loss-win in sequence for the past eight games.
Like Richmond, Lyon's Saints have been consistently competitive, three of their four losses by only 10 points or less.
Typically, they've been defensively stingy, St Kilda ranked second in the AFL for fewest average points conceded, behind only Collingwood. Unlike the Pies, though, scoring for the Saints is still an issue.
Even with spearhead Max King back in harness (he's kicked 11 goals in his three games thus far), the Saints since Round 9 have ranked only 15th in the AFL for points scored.
And that's one area in which its opponent on Saturday night has been clearly superior, Richmond since Round 9 ranked seventh for points scored and rated fifth for scores per inside 50m, the Saints just 13th over the same period.
If you're sensing some déjà vu at this point, yes, we were having these sorts of discussions about a Lyon-led St Kilda more than a decade ago.
Achieving that balance of defence and scoring potency for Lyon's teams has long been an issue, with the exception of 2009, when St Kilda ranked fourth for points scored to go along with its defensive supremacy.
In 2010, when they drew a grand final then lost the replay to Collingwood, the Saints ranked only eighth for scoring. And Lyon's other grand final team, Fremantle in 2013, fared even more poorly, the Dockers ranked a lowly 12th for points scored.
With scores finally trending up again since 2021 (although only very marginally) St Kilda is going to need to hit the scoreboard harder than it currently does to turn this still-impressive resurgence under Lyon into something of even more substance.
It's why a player like Mitch Owens has become so important so quickly to the Saints. It's why a player like Anthony Caminiti has more to offer than many non-Saints would realise. And it's why having Jack Higgins and Dan Butler as your leading two goalkickers is unsustainable if a team aspires to more than an "encouragement award".
All of which ends up parlaying into punter scepticism about the Saints. They're solid enough. They're hard to play against. But are they going to cause much damage in 2023 when it counts?
In a nutshell, it's about upside. And despite the disparity of ladder position, there's clearly a feeling it's Richmond with more of that upside right now than St Kilda.
Saturday night under the spotlight would be a great moment for Lyon and the Saints to make something of a statement to the contrary, and this time not just by turning the screws, but by kicking a cricket score to go with it.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY