To Melbourne we go for State of Origin II, which will be played on the hallowed turf of the MCG in front of a massive crowd. The Blues are one win away from regaining the coveted shield, after a miraculous fightback against a 12-man Queensland side in Origin I.
Both teams have made some changes -- some slightly confounding -- with Queensland determined to force the series into a Suncorp Stadium decider. The Blues have tinkered, hoping to eradicate the weaknesses that saw them trail 20-6 at halftime in Game I.
Will New South Wales wrap up the series or will we be heading to Brisbane for the decider?
We do our best to sort it all out.
Wednesday, June 17
State of Origin, Game II
New South Wales vs. Queensland
Melbourne Cricket Ground, 8:05pm (AEST)
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To'o 3. Casey McLean 4. Kotoni Staggs 5. Tolutau Koula 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Victor Radley 16. Addin Fonua-Blake 17. Apisai Koroisau 18. Ethan Strange 19. Mark Nawaqanitawase Reserve: 20. Haumole Olakau'atu
Coach: Laurie Daley
Queensland: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Cameron Munster 7. Sam Walker 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Briton Nikora 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Reuben Cotter Bench: 14. Max Plath 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Trent Loiero 18. Reece Walsh 19. Murray Taulagi Reserve: 20. Heilum Luki
Coach: Billy Slater
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Phil Henderson, Matt Noyen
Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: New South Wales won Game I in Sydney thanks largely to the sending off of Queensland fullback Kalyn Ponga in the 52nd minute. The Maroons were all over the Blues in the first half and went to the break leading 20-6. Queensland didn't score a try in the second half and New South Wales scored three of their four against 12 men. The final one being a slice of brilliance from James Tedesco outleaping stand-in fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to snatch a bomb from his grasp.
Despite the Blues winning the opener, coach Laurie Daley has not rested on his laurels, and realistically, the manner of their victory meant he had to make changes. Payne Haas straight into the front row is an absolute no-brainer. Arguably the world's best prop, he has returned from injury in fine form for the otherwise disappointing Broncos. He will add plenty of punch to a front-row rotation which didn't deliver the dominance hoped for in Game I.
The head-scratching changes to the Blues squad come in the form of Mitchell Moses being named five-eighth, and Haumole Olakau'atu being dropped to 20th man. Moses would have been one of the first named for Game I, but was ruled out with a hamstring injury. He has still not returned to the field for the Eels, and his fitness will instead be confirmed during Blues camp. In his place Ethan Strange was very close to being the best on the field for the Blues in Game I. How do you justify dropping one of your best players for a player who might not be as influential, even at full fitness? Moses did have a very good series last year, but the Blues also lost.
Olakau'atu might not have been as destructive as hoped in Game I, but he has been in fine form for the Sea Eagles. He has been replaced by Knights debutant Dylan Lucas, who scored a good try against the Storm last week, but also made several costly errors in that loss.
The Blues have also lost Stephen Crichton and Blayke Brailey to injury, replaced by the impressive Casey McLean and Apisai Koroisau respectively. Crichton has been carrying injuries for weeks, and still managed to play a part in the Game I victory. But the Blues will only lose out on his experience, with McLean clearly close to matching his abilities as a footballer.
The Maroons have also made a puzzling change to their squad. Billy Slater has named Reece Walsh on the bench, having overlooked him completely for Game I. The intriguing part about the decision is that Walsh has been ordinary in recent weeks for a Broncos side that has been beaten by the bottom two teams. Still, he offers the Maroons some spark off the bench and he will no doubt lift from his form rut once he pulls on the Queensland jersey.
Patrick Carrigan is a big loss for Queensland; he has been replaced by Kulikefu Finefeuiaki on the bench, while the pack has been shuffled around to give Briton Nikora a start. The Maroons look fairly settled and will know they only have to reproduce their first-half dominance from Game I across two halves and they will win in Melbourne.
New South Wales will go back to their original plan, which was for James Tedesco to run riot behind a dominant forward pack. Daley will hope that the addition of Haas will help create that dominance. They will also have to mend the defensive inadequacies that proved so costly in the first half of Game I.
It remains to be seen whether the addition of Moses actually strengthens the Blues. As good as he is at his best, it is a big ask for him to come back from a hamstring injury straight into the Origin arena. If he plays, I think the Maroons will sense another opportunity to run the Blues ragged. If the Maroons can keep all 13 players on the field, we should be heading to Brisbane for a decider.
Tip: Maroons by 10
PointsBet odds: Blues $1.80 (-1.5 $1.83) Maroons $2 (+1.5 $1.95)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.