If you had the Raiders at 3-0 and Texans at 0-3 after three weeks, good on you. The NFL is always wacky in September -- and never wackier than when Marcus Mariota leads the Commanders to a win over the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
Every Sunday, I'll find several of the coolest advanced stats from the day's NFL action to share with you -- stats to explain all the action and what it means. Some call them NFL Next Gen Stats. I call them Next Ben Stats: the data that might not make it on the broadcast but will make you a smarter fan (and laugh a little bit, probably).
Let's start Week 3's list with coaching mistakes that might have cost the Texans a much-needed divisional win.
Jump to an eye-popping stat on:
Texans decisions | Jones up the middle
Rodgers time to pass | Styles impact
Chargers takeaways | Raiders-Saints TEs
3.6%: How much win probability the Texans lost when they kicked a field goal on fourth-and-4
That was via ESPN's model. The NFL Next Gen Stats model was even worse at 5.5%.
The Texans are 0-3 for a lot of reasons, and clock and game management is a solid chunk of it. This particular fourth down came with Houston losing 16-7 with 7:36 remaining. The Texans knew they'd need a touchdown to get back into it but elected to instead kick the field goal from inside the 10-yard line.
It looked like it worked out. Houston forced a fumble on the ensuing drive, then scored the go-ahead touchdown with Woody Marks. But with the score at 17-16, all the Colts needed to get back on top was a field goal. They ultimately got it to go ahead 19-17. But that wasn't the real concerning part -- it's how much clock Houston coach DeMeco Ryans let run on Indy's drive before using his timeouts. After a first-and-10 run of 5 yards from Jonathan Taylor, the clock rolled from 1:04 to 0:29 (and an expiring play clock) ... and then Ryans called the timeout. Houston lost 19-17 after getting the ball back with just 11 seconds on the clock.
This isn't the first questionable fourth-down call for Ryans. He opted to kick a field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Bengals' 40 in last week's loss, a decision that cost him 7.4% in win probability. Against the Bengals and the Colts, an early fourth-down run was stuffed, and those failures seem to cut Ryans' confidence in fourth-down decisions at the knees. It's often the case that defensive-minded head coaches default to punts and field goals, but in the case of a struggling offense such as the Texans' unit, it's even more important to go for fourth downs when near the end zone -- you're unlikely to keep getting back there!
198: How many passing yards Daniel Jones had between the numbers
Consider that he had only 235 passing yards altogether in the win over Houston. Here are Jones' overall numbers throwing to the middle of the field: 20-for-25, 198 yards and one touchdown. Jones had a 113.0 passer rating there, and it was the eighth-most total dropback EPA (13.3) while throwing between the numbers in a game.
The Texans' defense remains an overall good unit, but it has a clear weakness in the middle of the field. The injury to starting linebacker Henry To'oTo'o has put backups Jake Hansen and Wade Woodaz on the field, and that duo was getting hammered in coverage Sunday. When Azeez Al-Shaair had to miss time because of a groin injury, the Texans had no intermediate-middle presence to speak of in their zone looks.
Ideally, a strong box safety such as Reed Blankenship alleviates some of these concerns -- but Blankenship has had some big misses. All too easily, opposing quarterbacks can ignore Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter on the outside. Jones had such a quick release hitting interior windows in this game, and it minimized the impact of the Texans' pass rush (as much as such a pass rush can be minimized).
3.19: How many seconds Aaron Rodgers averaged to throw
That's his longest time to throw in a game for the Steelers. And it's an enormous, enormous leap from what he has typically done for Pittsburgh. Since the start of last season, he had averaged 2.73 seconds heading into this game, the fastest among all league passers. He was fearful of taking hits and too quick to go to his checkdown.
Not on Sunday against the Bengals! The Steelers looked like a balanced passing attack willing to use prolonged play-action dropbacks to push the ball downfield, and they found more success through the air than either the Texans or Buccaneers did against the Bengals as a reward for their aggression. Rodgers had five completions of at least 20 yards, tied for his most in a game for the Steelers. He had 15 attempts of at least 10 air yards -- also his most in a game for the Steelers.
Pittsburgh also had a lights-out performance from its offensive line, both in pass protection and in the running game, which allowed for explosive rushes and kept Cincinnati defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II from taking over the game. Right guard (Brock Hoffman) and right tackle (first-round pick Max Iheanachor) were new starters, and the personnel shift worked. Rodgers had time to dissect a Bengals secondary that likes to conceal coverages with clever rotations -- something a savvy vet like him can do with the appropriate amount of protection and aggression.
3: How many games the Chargers have lost since 2015 in which they won the turnover margin by four or more
The rest of the NFL has two combined. The games in question:
The infamous 2022 playoff loss to the Jaguars, in which the Chargers surrendered a 27-0 lead
A 2015 end-of-season catastrophe for a 4-11 San Diego team against an 11-4 Denver squad
The game we just watched them lose to the Bills
As I wrote Tuesday, the Chargers are a dysfunctional team across the board. Not even five Bills turnovers for a plus-4 overall margin could account for all of their errors. Justin Herbert threw a back-breaking pick against the goal line in the fourth quarter. Coach Jim Harbaugh didn't go for it on fourth downs when he should have ... then attempted a fourth-and-10 late in the fourth quarter he didn't need to try at all. The offense had five penalties in the first quarter, tying its fourth quarter in Week 1 for the most penalties by a unit in one quarter this season.
Bad team. Takeaways are great, and I liked the play of the pass rush and rookie safety Genesis Smith to generate them. But they don't save a bad team.
2,870: How many days it had been since a rookie LB last had an interception and a forced fumble in the same game
Shaquille Leonard did it Nov. 18, 2018, for the Colts. And Sonny Styles did it Sunday for the Commanders.
Want to know what a top-10 pick at off-ball linebacker looks like? Want to see what an upset of the Super Bowl champion Seahawks with a backup quarterback starting requires? The intersection of that Venn diagram is the play of Styles.
He was a force in his third career game. His interception was the play of a centerfielder, tracking a tipped ball as it pop-flied through the air. His forced fumble was nearly a game-changing play -- he forced it at the 1-yard line and was unlucky to see it ricochet right back into the Seahawks' hands.
It's the plays that didn't stuff the stat sheet that really impressed, though. Styles shot a gap to hit running back Jadarian Price at the line of scrimmage in the first quarter, and cornerback Amik Robertson took the opportunity to punch the ball out. In the second quarter, Styles tracked Price in man coverage on a wheel route -- a nightmare role for a linebacker -- but easily kept stride and swiped his way into a pass breakup without turning his helmet. That's his safety background showing up.
Sonny Styles with the PBU 🔥@SEAvsWAS on FOX/FOX One
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/F6KiZsymMY
The Commanders' defense didn't have a perfect day, but it made splashy plays when it mattered. Styles was a huge part of that effort. He looks like a cornerstone player in Washington.
6: How many touchdowns were scored by tight ends in Raiders-Saints
That ties the record for most tight end touchdowns in a game in NFL history.
There were several different ways to get at this dominant performance for tight ends, which the Raiders won 35-27. The Saints contributed four touchdowns to the effort -- two from Noah Fant, two from Juwan Johnson. They're only the second pair of tight end teammates since 1960 to each have multiple touchdowns in a single game.
On the Raiders' side, Brock Bowers made his season debut with an absolute bang: 10 catches, 116 yards and a score. Since entering the league in 2024, Bowers has played 30 games, and he has four games of 10-plus receptions, 100-plus yards and at least one touchdown. The rest of the league's entire wealth of tight ends has only four such games in the same timespan.
Aside from the obvious talent of Bowers and Johnson (an underrated star in the making), I'd consider the great day for tight end production a greater testament to the playcallers. The Raiders' Klint Kubiak and Saints' Kellen Moore have chased the 13 personnel trend while successfully iterating on it. Bowers in particular was used exactly as I hoped he might be in Kubiak's offense -- 24 of his 33 routes were in the slot or out wide, and all of his targets came from those alignments. This is a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end.