With the 2016 NFL draft quickly approaching, it is time for Football Outsiders' annual SackSEER projections. The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass-rushing success of edge rushers: 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.
SackSEER -- which is based on a statistical analysis of all of edge rushers drafted from 1998-2013 -- has predicted success for current stars Von Miller, Khalil Mack and Justin Houston, while also identifying several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that an edge-rusher prospect will collect high numbers of sacks at the NFL level.
SackSEER projects the number of regular-season sacks the edge rusher will record over the course of his first five NFL seasons. This year's crop of pass rushers at the top of the draft project to be mostly mediocre, at least compared to their highly-drafted brethren in past drafts. However, this draft does include a smattering of underrated edge rushers who might still be available in the second, third and fourth rounds.
Here are our full projections (and yes, our two top prospects both ended up with the same sack figures). For more details on what exactly goes into the SackSEER formula, check out the full explanation at the bottom