Handicapping the Woodward

The 59th running of The Woodward Stakes is a contentious field of seven top three-year-olds. The Woodward is a Grade 1 race, inaugurated in 1954, to honor the memory of Belair Stud's William Woodward, Sr., a dedicated horseman, who was chairman of the Jockey Club from 1930 to 1950.

The Woodward started as a handicap and was changed to a weight-for-age event, run as an allowance stakes from 1977 through 1987, undergoing several more changes through 1991, before returning to a weight-for-age. Since its inception, the Woodward Stakes has been run at a variety of distances, but mostly at the 1⅛ miles -- 1955, 1976 --1977, 1981-1987, 1990 to present. Originally run at Aqueduct Racetack and most recently at Belmont Park, the Woodward was moved to Saratoga Race Course for its 53rd running in 2006.

A Closer look by post position

1. Rule
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Rider: Ramon Dominguez
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Career Earnings: $1,143,450

Good looking five-year old by Roman Ruler has six wins from seventeen lifetime starts. He has only two starts this year and is much better than is effort in The Whitney would suggest. He draws the rail and with tactical speed will gain a favorable position early for the red-hot rider Ramon Dominguez. Rule has won at this 1 1/8th distance and has a good record over the Saratoga surface.

2. Gourmet Dinner
Trainer: Bruce Brown
Rider: Alan Garcia
Owner: Our Sugar Bear Stable
Career Earnings: $1,076,277

Late running colt has never raced over the Saratoga surface and was fourth in his most recent start at Monmouth Park. He will be value in this field of seven and at the mercy of the early pace.

3. Mucho Macho Man
Trainer: Kathy Ritvo
Rider: Mike Smith
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing
Career Earnings: $1,306,410

Four-year old colt is strictly the one to beat off his easy win in The Suburban-G2 at Belmont Park at this distance. Money rider Mike Smith, at the controls for his last win, will be in the irons today. He is two for four at this distance and has speed to be on the engine or take a perfect stalk-and-pounce position early.

4. Trickmeister
Trainer: Richard Dutrow
Rider: I Ortiz Jr
Owner: IEAH Stables Pegasus Holdings Group S
Career Earnings: $308,700

Quick five-year-old runner by Proud Citizen is the speed in this field of seven and is a one-dimensional type runner. He needs the lead and have the ability to relax…and here is the key. Should Trickmeister be allowed to relax and gain a nice easy stride he will be a factor late. He was trounced by Mucho Macho Man two starts back.

5. Stay Thirsty
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Rider: JJ Castellano
Owner: Repole Stable
Earnings: $1,503,500

Colt has matured since a very productive three-year-old campaign when most of his winning races near the early pace. He was compromised in The Suburban, won by Mucho Macho Man, being forced wide throughout and never able to fire his best effort. The Suburban was only his second start of 2012 and he has come back with a steady and impressive work tab locally. His record of three for four over the Saratoga oval speaks for itself. He is the Horse-For-Course.

6. To Honor and Serve
Trainer: William Mott
Rider: JR Velasquez
Owner: Live oak Plantation
Earnings: $1,328,840

He was favored over Mucho Macho Man in The Suburban and failed to fire for veteran conditioner Bill Mott. He has come back with strong works at Saratoga and will be a factor today and gets a chance to make amends.

7. Cease
Trainer: Albert Stall
Rider: Joel Rosario
Owner: Dilschneider Adele and Claiborne Farm
Earnings: $311,240

Gelding makes the most of his starts and seldom misses a check. He was an easy winner over the Saratoga surface July 25 facing softer in his first start since May at Churchill Downs. He has speed to clear trouble and most importantly … three for three at Saratoga and four for six at this distance.

My Eyes

The Saratoga race track has been playing very fast this year. The average time for the 1 1/8 distance for this caliber of horse is between 1:47 and 1:48. The track record for the 1 1/8 distance was set by Lawyer Ron carrying 118 lbs, 1:46.64, July 28, 2007. Today all the runners will carry 126 lbs.

At the break I look for Trickmeister to be sent and take command early with Mucho Macho Man settling in on the rail, Stay Thirsty look for a spot third or fourth, To Honor and Serve might be hung out early, however will also be looking to use his speed to gain position early. The first quarter will be a quick 23.1. To the half-mile pole Trickmeister will be on the lead with To Honor and Serve stalking, Mucho Macho Man third, followed by Rule, Stay Thirsty, Cease, and Gourmet Dinner at the rear..the half-mile split 47.1. The race now begins with all riders deciding upon their position when to move for the final quarter and stretch run. Trickmeister will still be leading with To Honor and Serve now applying pressure, Mucho Macho Man will be asked to keep close, Stay Thirsty and Rule now must be asked or they will be trapped. The late runners Cease and Gourmet Dinner will be hoping for a speed jam and need both riders need to be patient … the 3/4 split will be 1:09.4. On the far turn look for Mucho Macho Man to make his bid and tackle the leader Trickmeister and To Honor and Serve. Rule and Stay Thirsty will be close, no more than three-lengths from the lead at the mile, and Cease and Gourmet will be starting their late charge … the mile will be 1:34.4. In the stretch Mucho Macho Man will take control and be challenged by To Honor and Serve. Rule and Stay Thirsty must now take their best lick and the race unfolds with Mucho Macho Man holding off Stay Thirsty, and Rule followed by To Honor and Serve, Gourmet Dinner, Cease, Trickmeister tiring … the final time will set a new stakes record 1:46.2.