It's that time of year: School resuming, coinciding, as it always does, with the expansion of major league rosters from 25 to 40 players.
And we all know what that means: Homework.
Sorry, fantasy owners, you're not exempt; just like students returning to the classroom, you've got homework, too. September means more candidates for precious at-bats and innings, the arrival of teams' official fates and therefore more effort required to squeeze that extra ounce of value from your players. Sorry, there's no rest for you fantasy footballers. Stay on your fantasy baseball game, because winners are the ones who allocate time for their homework.
There's a critical difference between our game and the classroom: Here, cheat sheets are welcome. That's the theme of this week's edition of the Going Forward Rankings -- cheat sheets to help you navigate the tricky September.
These are all lists -- three or nine deep, using familiar baseball numbers -- covering various fantasy-relevant topics. Got any other ideas for lists you'd like to see? Send 'em my way, and perhaps they'll show up in a future column.
Nine pitchers most at risk of reaching their 'innings cap'
1. Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals: He has already thrown 55 more innings this year than last, and he was skipped on Tuesday due to back stiffness. It's probably not the last time he'll have a turn skipped.
2. Matt Harvey, New York Mets: He's on pace for 196 1/3 innings in his first season since returning from Tommy John surgery, 18 more than he has ever thrown in a single year as a pro, and has already been skipped once.
3. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies. If we're to believe general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s claim that the team doesn't want Nola to exceed the 171 2/3 innings he threw between college and the minors in 2014, then the right-hander has 12 2/3 remaining frames. But he might be afforded a bit more than that.
4. Noah Syndergaard, Mets: He's on pace for a 53 2/3 inning increase upon his 2014 number, which is why there's so much chatter regarding the possibly he'll be skipped this weekend (and perhaps again in coming weeks).
5. Joe Ross, Washington Nationals: Counting his Tuesday total, Ross has already thrown 23 more innings this season than in any other as a pro. He'll likely be skipped at least once soon, and if the Nationals fall out of contention early, his season might immediately come to a close.
6. Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners: He's generating surprisingly few headlines for this, but manager Lloyd McClendon confirmed in mid-August that Walker faces some sort of limit. Walker is on pace for 187 2/3 innings, but I'd guess he's afforded closer to 160-170.
7. Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds: His limit is unknown, being that he threw only seven innings -- all in the 2014 Arizona Fall League -- in 2014, but the Reds do have a pre-set number. Iglesias, by the way, is 6-for-6 in quality starts with a 2.27 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 30.6 percent strikeout rate in August.
8. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox: He's on pace for a 58 2/3 inning increase upon his 2014 number, despite his having already been skipped once in the past month. With the Red Sox non-contenders, they have no reason to push Rodriguez. He might have only 3-4 starts remaining.
9. Michael Wacha, Cardinals: He's on pace for an 84 inning increase upon his 2014 number and 43 1/3 upon his previous pro high, and the Cardinals have whispered about skipping a start or two of his in September.
Others at risk: Manny Banuelos, Matt Boyd, Mike Foltynewicz, Jon Gray, Lance McCullers, Adam Morgan and Carlos Rodon.
Nine teams most likely to use a six-man rotation
1. New York Mets: This ties to the previous topic; Harvey and Syndergaard are approaching their prescribed innings caps and Jacob deGrom is another youngster who could get occasional extra rest. With Steven Matz on the mend and Logan Verrett available to fill in, the Mets might have already shown us their final five-man rotation turn of the 2015 regular season.
2. Cincinnati Reds: All five current members of their rotation are rookies, and each is on pace to exceed his 2014 innings totals by at least 25. You can be sure that a Dylan Axelrod, Tony Cingrani, Brandon Finnegan, David Holmberg, Josh Smith and/or Robert Stephenson will make spot starts as part of a probable six-man September rotation. 3. Houston Astros: They're already using a modified version, with Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir the two members remaining on an every-fifth-game schedule, and Scott Feldman, Mike Fiers, McCullers and Collin McHugh filling in the remaining games.
4. New York Yankees: CC Sabathia is on the mend, and the Yankees have indicated that they like the idea of a six-man rotation as a way to keep Masahiro Tanaka, among others, well-rested.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: Like the Reds, the Diamondbacks have a mostly young/inexperienced rotation, with Patrick Corbin, Rubby De La Rosa and Robbie Ray the three they're most likely approaching conservatively.
6. Boston Red Sox: In addition to Rodriguez's innings cap, Henry Owens also has a prescribed limit, and the Red Sox do have enough candidates -- Matt Barnes and Steven Wright among them -- they want to get starts that they could go this route soon.
7. Philadelphia Phillies: They're another mostly young/inexperienced rotation, and they have Jerome Williams (bullpen) and David Buchanan, Severino Gonzalez and Sean O'Sullivan (Triple-A) available to help space out some of their starters' turns in September.
8. Los Angeles Angels: They have some concerns about the innings paces of Andrew Heaney, Garrett Richards and Hector Santiago, so they could go the Astros route of a modified six-man rotation in which Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker stay on an every-fifth-game schedule. 9. Pittsburgh Pirates: A.J. Burnett is on the mend, and if he indeed returns in mid-September, who goes? J.A. Happ? Jeff Locke? Charlie Morton? Or does the team go six deep to align their top starters in the most critical games?
Three best hitting schedules
This uses the same measures from the Going Forward Rankings strength-of-schedule column from Aug. 12, runs scored, home runs, total bases and strikeouts, taking the team's average ranking in all four. Teams with more remaining games tend to receive a slightly increased weight.
1. Cleveland Indians (@TOR-1, @DET-3, @CWS-3, DET-4, KC-4, CWS-3, @MIN-3, @KC-3, MIN-4, BOS-3): They had the most favorable schedule the last time I ran the numbers, and they still do today. Since Aug. 12, incidentally, the Indians as a team rank 15th in runs per game (4.50), sixth in batting average (.274), fourth in on-base percentage (.341) and eighth in wOBA (.338).
2. Chicago White Sox (@MIN-2, @KC-3, CLE-3, MIN-3, OAK-4, @CLE-3, @DET-4, @NYY-4, KC-3, DET-3): They're one of two teams tied for the most remaining games overall (32), half of which will be played at U.S. Cellular Field. They're also seventh in runs per game (4.70) since the All-Star break.
3. Kansas City Royals (DET-2, CWS-3, MIN-3, @BAL-3, @CLE-4, @DET-3, SEA-3, CLE-3, @CHC-1, @CWS-3, @MIN-3): That's only 11 of 31 remaining games against teams ranked in the upper half in ERA.
Three best National League hitting schedules
As American League teams are typically higher-scoring, and therefore will generate the more favorable ratings, here are the NL's top three hitting schedules, with their overall ranking in parentheses.
1. (4 overall). Washington Nationals (@STL-1, ATL-4, NYM-3, @MIA-3, @PHI-3, MIA-4, BAL-3, PHI-3, CIN-1, @ATL-3, @NYM-3): Wait, an NL East team has the best schedule? Believe it, as outside of those six games against the Mets, the Nationals might not face a single top-20 fantasy starter. That's a good thing for a team that has been relatively disappointing offensively.
2. (6). Los Angeles Dodgers (SF-1, @SD-4, @LAA-3, @ARI-3, COL-3, PIT-3, ARI-4, @COL-3, @SF-4, SD-3): Chase Field and Coors Field games can help cure what ails a struggling offense, so those mid-September games are critical for squeezing what remaining value there is in Dodgers hitters.
3. (8). San Francisco Giants (@LAD-1, @COL-4, @ARI-3, SD-3, CIN-3, ARI-3, @SD-3, @OAK-3, LAD-4, COL-3): Again, Chase Field and Coors Field games, and it helps the contact-hitting Giants that they'll also have series against the patchwork Reds and Oakland Athletics rotations.
Three worst hitting schedules
1. Cincinnati Reds (@CHC-1, MIL-3, PIT-3, STL-4, @SF-3, @MIL-3, @STL-3, NYM-4, @WAS-1, CHC-3, @PIT-3): Though 17 of their final 31 games will be played at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, the Reds really face only one average-or-worse rotation, that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (PIT-2, @CIN-3, @MIA-3, @PIT-4, STL-3, CIN-3, @CHC-3, @STL-4, @SD-3, CHC-3): They play a major league-low 11 more home games -- no other team plays fewer than 13 -- and 14 of their 20 remaining road games will be played in pitchers parks (Marlins Park, PNC Park, Busch Stadium and Petco Park).
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (@COL-1, @CHC-3, SF-3, LAD-3, SD-3, @SF-3, @LAD-4, @SD-3, COL-3, HOU-3): After the conclusion of Wednesday's series at Coors Field, the Diamondbacks face only one below-average rotation the rest of the way, that the Colorado Rockies in their next-to-last series.
Three worst American League hitting schedules
Again, the AL will naturally generate the best hitting and worst pitching ratings, so here are the AL's worst on the hitting side (overall ranking in parentheses).
1. (6 overall). Seattle Mariners (@HOU-1, @OAK-3, TEX-4, COL-3, LAA-3, @TEX-3, @KC-3, @LAA-3, HOU-3, OAK-3): They play four more games in hitting-friendly ballparks all year, the Wednesday game at Minute Maid Park and the three-game series at Globe Life Park Sept. 18-20.
2. (11). Oakland Athletics (LAA-1, SEA-3, HOU-3, @TEX-3, @CWS-4, @HOU-3, TEX-3, SF-3, @LAA-3, @SEA-3): Perhaps their most significant disadvantage is that they're tied for the fewest remaining games (29) and the AL's fewest remaining home games (13). And when it comes to matchups-reliant offenses, you want volume first and foremost.
3. (12). Baltimore Orioles (TB-1, @TOR-3, @NYY-3, KC-3, BOS-3, @TB-4, @WAS-3, @BOS-3, TOR-4, NYY-3): Theirs is a shockingly poor schedule for an AL East team -- that's the division known for offense -- and the Orioles have precariously few trustworthy-in-fantasy bats in the first place.
Three best pitching schedules
1. Washington Nationals (@STL-1, ATL-4, NYM-3, @MIA-3, @PHI-3, MIA-4, BAL-3, PHI-3, CIN-1, @ATL-3, @NYM-3): Their best route to the postseason is behind the strength of the pitching staff, and this schedule says it's not wise to doubt Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg just yet.
2. Miami Marlins (@ATL-1, NYM-3, MIL-3, WAS-3, @NYM-3, WAS-4, PHI-3, ATL-3, @TB-3, @PHI-3): The Marlins might not have many known commodities in fantasy on the pitching side, but closer A.J. Ramos could be in for a strong finish, and there might be a matchup or three to exploit from the group including Brad Hand, Chris Narveson and Justin Nicolino.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (@NYM-1, @BOS-3, ATL-3, CHC-4, WAS-3, @ATL-3, @MIA-3, @WAS-3, NYM-3, MIA-3): Is it any surprise that all three teams hail from the NL East? The division's five teams rank 30th, 29th, 26th, 18th and 13th in runs per game this season. Sadly, the Phillies are only a consideration from a streaming angle in larger leagues.
Three best American League pitching schedules
Again, the NL is known as the pitchers' league, but here are the AL's top schedules on the pitching side (overall rank in parentheses).
1. (11 overall). Oakland Athletics (LAA-1, SEA-3, HOU-3, @TEX-3, @CWS-4, @HOU-3, TEX-3, SF-3, @LAA-3, @SEA-3): It'd be better if they played more home games than this, but Angel Stadium and Safeco Field during the final week are two pitching-friendly venues, at least.
2. (13). Seattle Mariners (@HOU-1, @OAK-3, TEX-4, COL-3, LAA-3, @TEX-3, @KC-3, @LAA-3, HOU-3, OAK-3): If you're a Felix Hernandez owner, surely you have to be happy to see them ranked this well.
3. (17). Detroit Tigers (@KC-2, CLE-3, TB-3, @CLE-4, @MIN-3, KC-3, CWS-4, MIN-3, @TEX-3, CWS-3): The new-and-improved Justin Verlander might be one of the sneakiest sources of fantasy production facing this schedule.
Three worst pitching schedules
1. Tampa Bay Rays (@BAL-1, @NYY-3, @DET-3, BOS-3, NYY-3, BAL-4, @BOS-4, @TOR-3, MIA-3, TOR-3): If they go to a six-man rotation, they'll be even less attractive from a fantasy angle. Chris Archer shouldn't be doubted, but all of their other starters might finish the year on a down note.
2. Baltimore Orioles (TB-1, @TOR-3, @NYY-3, KC-3, BOS-3, @TB-4, @WAS-3, @BOS-3, TOR-4, NYY-3): They're a more matchups-oriented rotation to begin with, their starters' ERA 4.95 since the All-Star break.
3. Chicago White Sox (@MIN-2, @KC-3, CLE-3, MIN-3, OAK-4, @CLE-3, @DET-4, @NYY-4, KC-3, DET-3): Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon are pitching too well to doubt, but even those three might suffer slight declines in fantasy value facing this schedule.
Three worst National League pitching schedules
Now, the NL's worst, with their overall rankings in parentheses.
1. (9 overall). Pittsburgh Pirates (@MIL-2, @STL-3, @CIN-3, MIL-4, CHC-4, @LAD-3, @COL-4, @CHC-3, STL-3, CIN-3): They're the other team with a league-high 32 remaining games -- the aforementioned White Sox are the other -- but 18 of them will be played on the road, including three at Coors Field, three at Great American Ball Park and three at Wrigley Field.
2. (11). Los Angeles Dodgers (SF-1, @SD-4, @LAA-3, @ARI-3, COL-3, PIT-3, ARI-4, @COL-3, @SF-4, SD-3): Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are matchup-proof, but the other three Dodgers starters, Alex Wood, Brett Anderson and Mat Latos, might be in for disappointing Septembers.
3. (15). San Diego Padres (TEX-1, LAD-4, COL-4, @SF-3, @ARI-3, @COL-3, SF-3, ARI-3, MIL-3, @LAD-3): Theirs is hardly a bad schedule -- it's ranked 15th, after all -- as 18 remaining games at Petco Park, that tied for the second-most remaining road games for any team, represents a decent chunk of palatable matchups.
Teams most likely to clinch early (and then rest players?)
1. Kansas City Royals: They're first and it's not even close, with a magic number of 20 to clinch the AL Central or a playoff spot in general. They could have the playoffs wrapped up nearly two weeks in advance, granting them the entire final week to rest veterans and align a Division Series rotation.
2. Cardinals: Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot (14) is lower than the Royals', but they play in an NL Central that might send three teams to the playoffs, so positioning could be a motivating factor deep into September. They could move up or down this list quickly, pending the outcomes of Sept. 18-20 series at Chicago and Sept. 28-30 at Pittsburgh.
3. Mets: We all know how their 2007-08 seasons concluded, but while it's difficult to declare them NL East champs, the Mets are in prime position for the honor. They have three games against their primary competition, the Washington Nationals, next week, then a "safety-net," season-concluding Oct. 2-4 series at home. The Mets might well wrap this up before that latter series, in which case it'd behoove them to rest their young starters.
Also watch: The Pirates, who have a 4.5 game lead for the first wild card, and might choose to rest players in the final days if they've assured home-field advantage for that winner-take-all contest.
Nine September call-ups who might matter
For these purposes, I've excluded DL'ed players like Steven Matz. Remember, prospects in September usually involve guesswork, but these nine are players with the best odds of making a noticeable impact.
1. Hector Olivera: You've waited all year for his arrival, which is imminent, and after it he should be an everyday player for the Atlanta Braves. Thirty-five games as a U.S. pro isn't nearly enough to give us a firm read on Olivera's value, but playing-time drives value in the deeper leagues, and he could be a .260-hitting, 4/2 type in September.
2. Michael Fulmer: The Tigers have already hinted at a promotion for their primary return in the Yoenis Cespedes deal, and while Fulmer might make only 2-3 starts before being shut down, his 2.06 ERA and 3.86:1 K-to-walk ratio in 20 Double-A starts suggest they could all be meaningful.
3. Jose Berrios: Though he's not on the Minnesota Twins' 40-man roster and wasn't among their initial wave of call-ups, Berrios could be an essential piece to their fleeting wild-card chances.
4. Blake Snell: He has had an exceptional year in the minors, breezing through three competitive levels (most recently Triple-A) and posting a 1.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 31.5 percent K rate. The Rays have discussed giving him September starts, and the only thing preventing him from a ranking ahead of Fulmer is his elevated walk rate (10.0 percent).
5. Joey Gallo: He batted just .195 since his return to Triple-A Round Rock, but with an overwhelming .255 isolated power. And with Josh Hamilton perhaps limited to pinch-hitting duty for the remainder of the year, Gallo could force himself into the Texas Rangers' corner outfield picture.
6. Javier Baez: Since returning from a fractured ring finger, he batted .333/.383/.518 in 33 games for Triple-A Iowa, but perhaps most importantly, he had a mere 23.2 percent K rate during that time. The Chicago Cubs will surely lump him into their mix-and-match pile initially, but if Baez has truly reined his free-swinging ways, he could be a sneaky September power source.
7. Corey Seager: He's the obvious name among the September call-up candidates, but I'm on record saying I expect a role akin to Joc Pederson's in 2014 (18 games, 3 starts, 38 PAs). Still, Seager's immense talent puts him on the list, as he could impress enough to capture a larger role.
8. Rymer Liriano: Though Travis Jankowski has been getting a fair share of time in center and right field for the San Diego Padres, Liriano might move into a platoon with him, or better, a regular role as the team looks to 2016. Liriano's career-best 11.6 percent walk rate for Triple-A El Paso gives him hope of a respectable five-category contribution if he gets the at-bats.
9. Richie Shaffer: He could factor at first base, third base or DH for the Rays, who should use September to get a read on his 2016 role.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past week. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Ehire Adrianza (SS), Starlin Castro (2B), Ivan De Jesus (OF), Cesar Hernandez (3B), John Lamb (SP), Brian McCann (1B), Daniel Murphy (1B), Daniel Nava (1B), Colin Rea (SP).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position: Joaquin Arias (SS, 8 games), Daniel Castro (SS, 9 games), Ivan De Jesus (SS, 8 games), Jake Elmore (3B, 9 games), Eduardo Escobar (2B, 8 games), Taylor Featherston (2B, 8 games), Ryan Flaherty (1B, 9 games), Logan Forsythe (3B, 8 games), Marwin Gonzalez (OF, 9 games), Jedd Gyorko (SS, 8 games), Corey Hart (1B, 8 games), Brock Holt (1B, 8 games), Ryan Jackson (2B, 8 games), Will Middlebrooks (SS, 8 games), Rey Navarro (2B, 9 games), Kris Negron (OF, 9 games), Derek Norris (1B, 9 games), David Ortiz (1B, 9 games), Sean Rodriguez (3B, 8 games), Miguel Rojas (2B, 9 games; 3B, 9 games), Andrew Romine (2B, 8 games), Brendan Ryan (3B, 9 games), Luis Sardinas (2B, 8 games), Nick Swisher (OF, 8 games), Justin Turner (1B, 9 games), Henry Urrutia (OF, 8 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 21
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.