When building anything, the fewer points of potential weakness, the better chance your structure doesn't collapse.
In ESPN standard fantasy hockey leagues, a skater's value is built on his contributions in the seven categories counted in the game: goals, assists, plus/minus, penalty minutes, power-play points, average time on ice and shots on goal.
Whatever each player's fantasy value is on the ESPN Player Rater, that value is built by the combined value of their contributions in the individual fantasy categories. The beauty of the Rater is in its simplicity. The numerical Player Rater value for each player is determined by simply adding their Player Rater value in each category.
To wit, Evgeni Malkin leads all skaters with a Rater value of 17.09. That is made up of his value in goals (2.85), assists (3.46), plus/minus (1.86), penalty minutes (2.77), power-play points (3.32), average time on ice (0.43) and shots on goal (2.40). Add up the numbers in parentheses and you get his 17.09 value.
We started by talking about structural integrity and weak points. In this exercise, we are looking for skaters that don't have them or -- conversely -- have a glaring Achilles heel in their fantasy value. To turn this idea into quantifiable data, we took the top 200 skaters on the ESPN Player Rater and converted their individual Rater categories into a percentage of their total. Then we looked at how far away from a fictional "perfectly balanced" player those percentages are. For the record, a "perfectly balanced" player would earn 14.29 percent of his sum total Player Rater value from each of the seven categories.
Most balanced players
Note: The number in each column is the percent of total Player Rater value the player generates from that category. "Dev" is the deviation from the "14.29 percent from each category" achieved by a hypothetical perfectly balanced player.
Takeaways: The idea is that these are your top 10 most well-built fantasy players. The ones who draw from all seven category wells to supply their value. Note that these aren't the best fantasy players, but the ones who get the most balanced supply of their current value. To be clear: No, we don't think Paul Stastny is a must-own player in all leagues. But if he is doing enough to have value in your league based on its depth, we would certainly argue he is chief among candidates to hold and maintain that value. ... This should also be very reassuring for owners of Ryan Kesler and Nick Foligno. They weren't anywhere close to this kind of value last season. While we've stated they are "for real" before, it's nice to see it quantified. Both players are earning value across the board. ... Matt Dumba is getting a lot of mentions around these parts for the past two weeks, and it's with good reason. The up-and-coming defenseman is finally getting to show his offensive prowess for the Minnesota Wild and the results have been exceptional. His Player Rater value is somewhat driven by his plus/minus, but it's not like he has a glaring hole somewhere else in his game. ... Malkin is doing it all. The clear overall leader on the Player Rater also happens to be right up there when it comes to a balanced approach. While he still comes with an injury risk, those fantasy owners needing a massive shakeup should go after him with a blockbuster trade offer. The consensus is that someone else will finish the season as the top overall fantasy asset, but there's no denying that Malkin, if healthy, could still be there at the end of the season.
House of cards
Takeaways: Here we've identified some of the players for whom we noticed some concerning percentages. In most of these cases, the players have very unstable fantasy value that is predicated on just one or two categories. And not just any categories -- we are looking at ones that don't always have a history of some stability. If a player is generating most of his fantasy value in shots on goal or average ice time, that can be an encouraging trend, as the other categories can suddenly turn around. If a player, like Ryan Getzlaf, is generating the vast majority of his fantasy value in assists and power-play points, we have to pause and show some concern. What if the Anaheim Ducks opted to move him to the second power-play unit? All of a sudden his fantasy value collapses, much like a house of cards. ... Michael Grabner is listed here because he's basically an empty shell outside of goals and plus/minus. If the puck stops going in for him with such frequency (compare his 18.7 shooting percentage this season to his career 12.2 percent), things could get ugly quickly. ... Antoine Roussel and Jared Spurgeon are included to show off what a one-trick pony can look like for fantasy value. Roussel gets almost 74 percent of his current fantasy value from penalty minutes alone. Spurgeon is earning his high Player Rater value almost exclusively via plus/minus. Counting on plus/minus can be dangerous, as it's a fickle indicator. ... Brandon Saad is included here because there are two red flags on his profile: A fairly high percentage of his value in plus/minus, and a negative value in power-play points. His inclusion on the top Columbus Blue Jackets power-play unit could be a move made later in the season if the current quintet cools off, but it's showed no signs of doing so yet.
Improvement pending
Takeaways: For good measure, here are a few players who have a profile that could vastly improve their fantasy ranking with a few minor adjustments. To continue our building metaphor, they have an excellent foundation. ... Jordan Eberle and Nathan MacKinnon are hurting in the plus/minus department. That's an obvious route to increased fantasy value for both players. With Eberle, it seems more in reach. After all, his linemate Connor McDavid has managed a plus-8 rating so far this season, so Eberle should be able to turn things around. On the other hand, his absence from the top power-play unit in lieu of Mark Letestu is an ongoing concern here. With MacKinnon, there is little hope that the Colorado Avalanche suddenly turn around their dismal season, but some stabilization to his plus/minus is in order if the team can figure out some of its defensive woes. That said, MacKinnon's improvement will come from the power play. There's no real reason he doesn't have great numbers on the man advantage, as he's being given every opportunity with big minutes. It's easier to improve a power play than it is an entire team game. MacKinnon is the type of player who should be getting 25-plus power-play points per season, but is only on pace for 14 at the moment. ... John Carlson has exactly the right base of fantasy value for improvement, with strong numbers in his shots on goal, average ice time and power-play points. The goals and plus/minus will follow. ... Tyler Seguin is already the 26th-best skater on the ESPN Player Rater so far this season. If his plus/minus wasn't dragging his numbers down, he'd be a no-brainer top 10. For the record, he hasn't had a bad plus/minus with the Dallas Stars in prior seasons, so it's not off-base to think he'll improve there. ... Zach Parise has all the right base stats in place for sudden and marked improvement if he can get his game going. His stat profile is actually really balanced, considering his overall value hasn't been all that great.
Fantasy Forecaster: Jan. 2-8
Fair warning this week as it begins the new NHL "bye week" system to give players a break. Between now and the end of February, teams will get a five-day break from practices and games. This week, the Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators appear to have the first "byes" of the season, with the teams off until the weekend. The Senators have a back-to-back set on the weekend to close out the week with two games, and the Isles also play two games on Friday and Saturday, but the Pens will only play the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday for a one-game week.
It's fairly busy around the rest of the league, with nine teams playing four games. The Stars don't have five consecutive days off, but still only play two games during this coming scoring period.
Download the forecaster chart PDF here
For those new to the Forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense) and "D" (defense) matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1-10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
Team notes
Vancouver Canucks: If ever there was a week to consider loading up on some Canucks, it's this week. Vancouver will take on the Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes and then the Calgary Flames in a back-to-back set. If you're looking for some lightning in a bottle to ride for the beneficial schedule, consider Jayson Megna. He's spending time with the Sedin twins on the top line lately, and has experience playing with scoring lines in the past (he's winged Sidney Crosby before). ... Troy Stecher could also be worth a deep-league investment, as he continues to play the point on the Canucks' top power-play unit more than anyone else. The stats are obviously modest, but the opportunity next week is significant given the schedule.
Anaheim Ducks: For the second week in a row, the Ducks look to have the advantage in scoring against their opponents. If you're not using Jakob Silfverberg -- which is the case in 42 percent of ESPN leagues -- get on it already. He's on a three-game goal scoring streak. ... The illness suffered by Sami Vatanen has us very intrigued at the usage of Brandon Montour. The high-scoring AHLer made his NHL debut on Thursday, which included 3:45 of power-play time on the point. Of course, the Ducks had six power plays, so it's not like he was leading the blue line in minutes. Still, like Shea Theodore, Montour is a big-time offensive defenseman in the Ducks system, waiting for a chance to shine. If Vatanen remains out through next week, it could be the opportunity he needs.
Carolina Hurricanes: With Justin Faulk hitting the sidelines for an extended period of time, fantasy owners can collectively moan for two reasons: Faulk was just hitting his stride, and there really isn't a clear replacement. Noah Hanifin is the one to watch, though. The No. 5 pick from 2015 has been getting the second-most power-play minutes to Faulk already, and has shown flashes of scoring ability in his young career. The Hurricanes have a busy four-game week on tap and it wouldn't be crazy to slide Hanifin into lineups to give him a chance.
Goalie notes
As we've stated before, regardless of how it looks for Matt Murray, Marc-Andre Fleury is well nigh undroppable in fantasy leagues. A tweaked "lower-body" for Murray later, and Fleury has the Penguins crease all to himself again for a week or so. Of course, the Penguins are on a "bye" this week and only play one game. Still, it's illustrative of the point that Fleury needs to stay on rosters no matter how dominant Murray appears.
We said rather softly earlier this week that Jared Coreau may be worth picking up while Jimmy Howard is out given how poorly Petr Mrazek has played. Let's upgrade that to definitely worth picking up after two terrific Coreau starts this week have sandwiched another stinker from Mrazek.
Player notes
The Tampa Bay Lightning got the old band back together with the return to health of both Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov. Consider picking up Palat, as, together with Tyler Johnson, they've looked like the Triplets of old for the past two games. It's also notable that with all the healthy bodies back in the lineup for the Lightning, Brian Boyle still played on a scoring line and on the first power-play unit. He could be an asset for longer than we expected.
It's not how we wanted to see Frank Vatrano earn a top-six role for the Boston Bruins, but David Backes may have a concussion. That leaves Vatrano in a position to build off his prolific AHL scoring at the NHL level.
The Buffalo Sabres are still figuring out their lines in the absence of Ryan O'Reilly. Out for up to three weeks, O'Reilly leaves a difficult void. In a loss to the Bruins on Thursday, the Sabres changed up their lines throughout the game looking for the right combination. There are still up to two weeks left without O'Reilly, so keep an eye on who sticks with Jack Eichel during this transition period. If the right combination catches on, it could stay together well past O'Reilly's return.
A broken finger for Troy Brouwer means another scoring line (and power play) chance for Alex Chiasson with the Flames. Brouwer is week-to-week, which should afford Chiasson plenty of opportunity with Johnny Gaudreau as a linemate both on and off the man advantage.
It's time to check on the availability of Vincent Trocheck and crew. The Panthers' sterling second line from last season, which included Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith, has been relatively quiet this season. But with Aleksander Barkov now joining Jonathan Huberdeau on the sidelines for up to three weeks, the pressure will be on for Trocheck & Co. to pick up the slack. Smith is on the injured reserve with a concussion, but is expected back as soon as this weekend. The trio should be reunited and will have a chance to lead the way for the Panthers, as they did for much of last season.