How and why has Marnus Labuschagne been retained for Australia's Test tour of South Africa? That is the question almost every Australian fan is asking right now.
How has a 32-year-old averaging 24.69 from his last 43 Test innings over a three year period, without a Test century, kept his place in the squad when the team is clearly struggling for runs?
Why is Australia's chair of selectors George Bailey saying that he is "confident that he can still make a positive contribution" despite Labuschagne averaging 24.58 over 13 innings since returning from being dropped 15 months ago?
Ricky Ponting said during the Mackay Test that he admired the selectors for trying to give Labuschagne time to rediscover his best but added that he "well and truly thinks it's time to have a look at somebody else."
Therein lies the problem Australia's selectors are wrestling with, if not Labuschagne then who?
The case to retain Labuschagne is bleak. There are 56 players globally who have averaged more than Labuschagne over the last three years (minimum of 20 innings) and only three of them, Babar Azam, Dimuth Karunaratne and Mitchell Marsh have failed to make a Test century in that time. Karunaratne and Marsh have both retired from first-class cricket.
The selectors have asked for greater context to be considered when measuring batting output given the challenging surfaces Australia's batters have batted on over the last few years. In that context, top four batters are averaging 30.81 as a collective in Tests Labuschagne has played in over the past three years against Labuschagne's own mark of 24.69.
Bailey was asked about the percentage of runs measurement on Monday and reiterated that it was important to let players know that they were still contributing to wins in a bowler-friendly era as the team goal remains to score more runs than the opposition in any given game.
But even Labuschagne's percentage of runs continues to diminish well below that of the entire top seven bar new inclusion Matt Renshaw. One area he had excelled in was the carry percentage, which is the number of times a player had contributed more the 25% of the team total. Over the last four years only Travis Head and Usman Khawaja had done that more often than Labuschagne. But the last two of those instances - 70 of 234 against India and 90 of 256 against New Zealand - were back in 2024.
There is a school of thought that Australia can't do any worse if they replace Labuschagne. But the numbers suggest it's not that simple. Outside of the incumbent top seven, Australia have picked four other batting newcomers to Test cricket in the last three years and Josh Inglis is the only one to average more than Labuschagne with 26.28 and he has not batted in the top three. The three openers Australia have tried in that time have scored two half-centuries between them in 28 innings. Jake Weatherald averaged 20.36, Sam Konstas 16.30 and Nathan McSweeney 14.40.
Cameron Green is the only player to have batted at No. 3 in that time, both when Labuschagne opened in the 2025 WTC final and subsequently when he was dropped for the three-Test tour of the West Indies. But even across four Tests, albeit in very tough batting conditions, Green only managed to average 23.50 with just one half-century in eight innings.
The Sheffield Shield is not flush with No. 3 options, either. Only five players, including Labuschagne, have scored more than 800 runs at No. 3 in the last three years. None of the five have scored more than two centuries and only Tim Ward (38.90) and Kurtis Patterson (37.18) average more than Labuschagne's 35.83. McSweeney has averaged 30.08 at No. 3 in Shield cricket over the past three seasons. However, in five innings at No. 3 for Australia A in that same period he has 480 runs at 160, including 226 not out against England Lions and three other half-centuries against India A and Sri Lanka A.
It is clear the selectors remain uncertain of how to contextualise those first-class numbers.
Ultimately they have decided that no player is better equipped for the challenge of South Africa than Labuschagne. That they have not included a top-order back-up is also telling, with Inglis and Cooper Connolly the only spare batters in the touring party. Bailey did state that the selectors believe both could bat in the top three at Test level despite the duo averaging a combined 12.28 from seven innings at No. 3 in first-class cricket.
Bailey was also asked whether Steven Smith could return to No. 3, where he averages 65.22 in Test cricket with eight centuries. Such a move could open the door for Head to slide back to the middle order but it would also leave Australia without an opener for the upcoming series.
"They're all questions that'll be on the table, and that's probably the consideration, isn't it?" Bailey said. "Any time you do make a move, it's what are you taking away from where they are performing, and that's always going to be a question, particularly around Travis, I think. The success that he had at five, but also the success he has had at the top, and what he provides to the structure of the team there. So I think there are always going to be considerations. Steve has batted at three for a large part of his career. Hasn't done it for a little while, and has had success there. So absolutely, that'll be a conversation at some point."
There is one other element to Labuschagne's retention that is potentially a factor. There is a concern that dropping Labuschagne would end his Test career at 32. But there is precedent for players to recover at that age. Usman Khawaja was dropped aged 32 in 2019 and recalled at 35 three years later before enjoying a four-year run of career-best form as a Test opener.
Both Labuschagne and the selectors would give anything for a Khawaja-like career renaissance right now. They will be judged harshly if it doesn't start in South Africa.