Editor's note: Each week Bracketology Insider will take an in-depth look at teams headed for the NCAA Tournament ... or not.
Week in review
Most SEC teams would be satisfied with splitting a pair of conference road games in the same week. However, Florida (RPI No. 9, SOS No. 1) is not "most" SEC teams. The Gators come into the season with legitimate Final Four aspirations, and their recent stretch of .500 basketball does not suggest a group that can put together an extended March winning streak.
The Gators couldn't have asked for much more in a win last Tuesday at Alabama (RPI No. 24, SOS No. 2). The Crimson Tide, ranked behind only the Gators in schedule strength nationally, are very difficult to contend with at home, yet Florida was unruffled in a 10-point victory, 88-78.
The opposite was true four days later, when Tennessee (RPI No. 49, SOS No. 52) managed a staggering 36-point turnaround in upending the Gators, 65-63, in Knoxville. The Vols had lost in Gainesville, 95-57, just three weeks earlier, but were coming of close-but-no-cigar home games against both Kentucky and Louisville. It could be merely that Florida was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Coming up
If the Gators are serious about contending in the SEC-and nationally, for that matter, the time is now. They are staring at three straight home games against the RPI Top25, beginning with a Super Tuesday visit from Kentucky (RPI No. 3, SOS No. 7). Since playing for the national championship in 2000, Florida has lost five of six to UK, including the last four. The Gators must clear the "big blue" hurdle if they are to aspire beyond the SEC East.
On Saturday, vengeful Vanderbilt (RPI No. 26, SOS No. 40) visits Gainesville. Florida handled the Commodores in Nashville, 86-72, a little over two weeks ago, but the Gators need to keep in mind how they were handled by Tennessee in that rematch. Otherwise, even a Tuesday win over Kentucky could be undone by a home court loss to a Vandy team that is far less imposing away from Memorial Gym.
The third of the three-game, RPI-building home stand comes a week from Saturday when LSU (RPI No. 23, SOS No. 31) comes to town. The Tigers are felling good about themselves again after winning at Alabama last Saturday.
"Planting seeds"
The Gators are No. 22 this week on The Bracketology Report national seeding chart. This is good enough for a projected No. 6 seed, but still far below what most Florida fans would have hoped for at the start of the season.
But all is far from lost in Florida's quest for a deep March tourney run. Whoever emerges in the crowded SEC East is going to have the kind of NCAA seed that makes for grand possibilities. The Gators can still be that team, but they must defend their home court much better than in earlier losses to Maryland and Mississippi State.
Season breakdown (13-5, 3-3)
All RPI data through Sunday, Feb. 2
Date Opponent Result Opp. RPI Opp. SOS
11/25 Montana State 112-73 204 264
11/28 N-Arizona 78-77 21 29
12/2 Florida A&M 102-78 292 315
12/4 N-Central Florida 59-39 74 219
12/6 Stetson 74-61 219 157
12/10 Maryland 68-69 (L, ot) 36 19
12/13 @Louisville 65-73 (L) 4 20
12/20 N-West Virginia 70-57 95 122
12/22 Northeastern 101-84 182 261
12/27 Eastern Kentucky 109-63 242 221
1/3 Florida State 87-73 41 58
1/7 @South Carolina 65-62 42 199
1/10 Tennessee 95-57 49 52
1/17 @Vanderbilt 72-86 (L) 26 40
1/21 Mississippi State 68-79 (L) 6 71
1/24 Auburn 68-52 45 28
1/27 @Alabama 88-78 24 2
1/31 @Tennessee 63-65 (L) 49 52
2/3 Kentucky 3 7
2/7 Vanderbilt 26 40
2/14 LSU 23 31
2/17 @Georgia 58 22
2/21 @Mississippi 63 44
2/25 South Carolina 42 199
2/28 @Arkansas 92 68
3/3 Georgia 58 22
3/7 @Kentucky 3 7
3/11 SEC Tournament
Joe Lunardi's forecast (Feb. 2)
Chance of NCAA top seed: 5 percent
Chance of NCAA "protected" (1-4) seed: 35 percent
Chance of NCAA bid: 90 percent
Chance of NCAA at-large bid: 80 percent
Chance of NIT bid: 10 percent
Chance of missing post-season: 0 percent