It looks like it could be another wet slate, with rain in the forecast on the East Coast. This is problematic for head-to-head leagues closing out the week, especially those with innings or starts caps. We'll stay on top of the news and update as necessary. Good luck to those looking to add another victory to their ledgers.
Pitching
Elite
If you own Jose Fernandez in head-to-head leagues, hopefully you've thought about a contingency plan in the event the Miami Marlins curtail the innings of their prized right-hander. DFS enthusiasts have no such concerns, as the 23-year-old right-hander is throwing as well as anyone not named Clayton Kershaw. Over his previous five outings (covering 34 frames), Fernandez has allowed only three earned runs, fanning 49 while walking just five. At home against the New York Mets, Fernandez is the top option for DFS play regardless of site or format.
Okay, let's call it a draw between Fernandez and Jake Arrieta for DFS cash play. After a slow start in the strikeout department, the Chicago Cubs righty has whiffed 38 in his past 32 innings, pushing his strikeout rate to exactly a hitter an inning. Fernandez has a higher strikeout upside, but Arrieta is a bigger favorite to earn a win. The potent Cubs offense draws Patrick Corbin, while the Fish face the rejuvenated Matt Harvey.
Aaron Nola continues to hover around the elite cutoff, with the matchup determining which side of the fence he lands on a start-to-start basis. With a date against the Milwaukee Brewers and their 27 percent whiff rate versus righties, the 23-year-old sits at the adult table this time around. Nola has always been considered a top prospect, but his 9.5 K/9 is a surprise. It's not a fluke, but rather a result of a killer curveball that's rated as one of the better hammers in the game.
Corey Kluber rounds out the elite group based on his track record, but with respect to DFS playability on the Sunday slate, the three previously named hurlers are all superior options. The Cleveland Indians entertain the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field, and while the guests aren't as stingy with the whiffs as last season, the strikeout upside for Kluber pales in comparison to the other elite pitchers.
Solid
Drew Smyly's seasonal peripherals look good; he checks in with a 9.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Lately, however, it's the opposing hitters who have been doing the smiling, as the Tampa Bay Rays southpaw has allowed 23 runs over his past 26 1/3 innings. Next up for Smyly is a Minnesota Twins squad that sports a hefty 25 percent strikeout rate and a meek 0.279 weighted on-base average (wOBA) vs. left-handers. Smyly's history has earned him the benefit of the doubt, but if he struggles in this soft matchup, it's time to worry.
Early indications are that despite an unsightly 5.76 ERA, the Colorado Rockies have finally developed a potential front-line starter in Jon Gray. He's in a great spot to continue impressing; the rookie right-hander has a date with the San Diego Padres and their 24 percent strikeout clip (and 0.281 wOBA) on Sunday.
Even the most ardent Justin Verlander supporter couldn't have anticipated a five-game stretch in which he averaged almost 7 2/3 innings a start, fanning 44 while walking just nine. The 33-year-old can't continue at this torrid pace, but it's safe to say he's a different pitcher than the watered-down 2013-2014 version. The Detroit Tigers veteran is in a great spot to continue his dominance with a scuffling Chicago White Sox club wrapping up a set in Motown.
The rest of the solid tier is loaded for both DFS and seasonal purposes. With the head-to-head week coming to a close, let's save some bandwidth for the best spot-starters and more importantly, those to avoid. Please don't hesitate to ask a question related to anything on Sunday's slate in the comments, or shoot a tweet to @ToddZola.
Streamers
There's some risk as, historically, Matt Wisler scuffles versus lefty swingers and the Los Angeles Dodgers pose a formidable trio in Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson. However, while it's premature to say Wisler has figured things out with a 0.268 wOBA against lefties so far, he is in play if you need another start this week.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a borderline call. If you're chasing wins, he's definitely in play. If your ratios are tight, there's some risk in using a left-hander against the powerful right-handed sticks of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Hector Santiago has some nice strikeout upside facing the Pittsburgh Pirates and their 24 percent whiff rate against southpaws, but the Bucs also mash lefties to the tune of a 0.351 wOBA, so deploy at your own peril.
Avoid
With Rich Hill's weekend turn being skipped as he tends to a sore groin, Sonny Gray's rehab assignment has been cut short and he has been summoned to Minute Maid Park to make his return against the Houston Astros. While the long-term outlook should be positive, it's defensible to wait on the righty before activating him if you need to protect your ratios.
Patrick Corbin's 50 Game Score is drawing from a good track record the past couple of seasons. Considering he doesn't offer much strikeout potential, however, and the fact that the Chicago Cubs boast a 0.341 wOBA versus southpaws, the Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw is best left on the fantasy bench.
Jake Peavy has allowed only one run over his past two outings, but he has punched out only seven in those 13 2/3 innings. Expect the St. Louis Cardinals to take advantage and do some damage.
On one hand, the Philadelphia Phillies are not the most daunting of attacks. On the other hand, Wily Peralta has seen 41 runners cross the dish in his 56 2/3 innings of work. Side with the hitters and avoid Peralta.
Derek Holland rounds out the unusually lengthy list of Sunday pitchers to avoid. The Seattle Mariners are raking while Holland has fanned only 27 in 52 2/3 frames.
Hitting
The Seattle Mariners are in a groove, scoring 16 runs twice in the past week, and now they draw the lowest-ranked pitcher on the board in Holland. Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano lack the platoon edge, but that hasn't stopped them this week -- plus, they're likely to see some right-handed relievers. Righties Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez are definitely in the mix as well.
Chris Young is always a threat to give up homers, while Progressive Field is an underrated venue in terms of being favorable to left-handed power. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are in the best spots, but don't sleep on switch hitters Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana.
The right-handed contingent of the Chicago Cubs is in line for a productive day with southpaw Patrick Corbin toeing the Wrigley Field rubber. Kris Bryant leads the charge, followed by Jorge Soler and Addison Russell. Switch hitters Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist are always worthy of consideration.
As alluded to earlier, the Philadelphia Phillies do not possess a particularly potent attack, but with Wily Peralta taking the hill at Citizens Bank Park, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph are cheap stacking options.
While the lefty-swinging Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams and Brandon Moss hold the platoon edge over Jake Peavy, the San Francisco Giants veteran right-hander isn't missing many bats, which puts righty-swinging Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty and Matt Holliday in the picture, too.
Most likely to hit a homer: Patrick Corbin and his 1.5 HR/9 are music to Kris Bryant's ears -- and his bat.
Most likely to steal a base: On-base machine Odubel Herrera has only six swipes, but with the weak battery of the Milwaukee Brewers in town, look for Herrera to take off and grab another bag.