In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present daily notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster in which we project the best pitcher game scores, as well as the best team hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.
Pitching
Elite
Sunday's top two pitchers provide the ideal platform to reinforce that ratings should be considered in context, not in a vacuum. Specifically, how can Matt Harvey's projected game score trump that of Jake Arrieta? Keep in mind that the projected game score does something both you and I struggle with, and that's ignoring recency bias. That doesn't mean the calculation doesn't account for recent outings, but rather, it doesn't forget the more telling player's history. Just as importantly, the focus is on skills and not outcomes, which is especially relevant in small samples. The final factor games scores incorporate is the matchup, both in terms of quality of opponent and venue.
Because he's ranked higher, we'll begin with Harvey. Driving much of his ranking is a juicy date with the offensively-challenged San Diego Padres in run-suppressing Petco Park. The hosts check in with a below-average 0.281 weighted on base average (wOBA) versus right-handers while fanning against them a generous 26 percent of the time. Historically, Harvey has punched out a batter an inning. To this point, Harvey is in a fantastic spot, but here's where a spreadsheet calculation falls a little short. Granted, the projected 67 game score is a reflection of 2016's pedestrian 6.6 K/9, since it would be in the 70s otherwise. A score of 67 should elicit a good measure of confidence, however, which quite frankly is questionable when evaluating the New York Mets right-hander. In six outings he's yet to toss more than six frames, in part due to an elevated 2.9 BB/9. In terms of DFS, this makes Harvey a poor cash game candidate at his price but a viable GPP option.
In contrast, Arrieta's projected game score of 63 may seem conservative considering the video game numbers he's put up this season, featuring a silly 0.84 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP. Yet, in terms of skills, the righty's 7.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are nothing special. His 2.80 xFIP and 3.05 FIP reiterate the obvious -- he won't maintain such a microscopic ERA. But please don't misunderstand me -- with Max Scherzer's struggles, I have Arrieta ranked third among starting pitchers, with only Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale ahead of him. It shouldn't be long before Arrieta's whiff rate climbs back towards the batter per inning level he's exhibited with the Chicago Cubs. However, with the Washington Nationals in Wrigley Field to conclude a weekend set, Arrieta profiles as perfect for cash but too costly for a tournament.
Solid
Because he isn't as flashy as some of the other emerging young arms, Aaron Nola's early success hasn't received the recognition it deserves. The Philadelphia Phillies' right-hander has been remarkably consistent, tossing seven stanzas in five of his six efforts, fanning between six and nine in each outing. His current 9.9 K/9 is higher than expected and is likely to slide. but it will still land at a very useful point. Next up for the 22-year old is the Miami Marlins in South Beach. It won't be a cakewalk, as the Fish are hitting right-handers well with a 0.336 wOBA, but Nola is still in play as a DFS cash option.
In what's become a Pavlovian call, right-handers facing the Houston Astros are GPP candidates. Getting the call this time is Hisashi Iwakuma, as the Seattle Mariners close out a series in Minute Mark Park; the hosts fan at a healthy 26 percent clip when facing righties. Iwakuma's current 6.6 K/9 is below his career 7.5 mark, but he has the experience to frustrate the free-swinging Astros.
Circling back to the theme of understanding how the sausage is made, Nick Tropeano's aggressive projected game score of 57 reflects his working at home in Angels Stadium, one of the better pitcher's venues in the league. In addition, he squares off with the Tampa Bay Rays and their tepid 0.295 wOBA and bloated 27 percent whiff rate against right-handers. If Tropeano was a more established starter, those factors would portend an even higher game score, but a 5.1 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 temper expectations and take Tropeano out of cash action. However, an 8.9 K/9 renders him ideal for GPP deployment.
Patrick Corbin may not enjoy the home-field advantage, but that's the only box he doesn't check in a visit to Turner Field against the Atlanta Braves. The Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw is another tournament candidate facing a squad with a meek 0.235 wOBA and charitable 27 percent whiff rate against left-handers.
For those focusing on cash play, Jose Quintana is a great choice as the Chicago White Sox close out a series with the Minnesota Twins in U.S. Cellular Field. Since he lasted just 5 2/3rd in his initial start of the season, Quintana has thrown at least six stanzas in the ensuing five efforts. The visitors 0.294 wOBA against southpaws portends to another long outing, and their 24 percent strikeout rate in this scenario render the left-hander a GPP threat as well.
Streamers
It's not a particularly great day to make up lost ground in your head-to-head as, despite there being 16 options with a game score between 46 and 52, not many of them stand out as comfortable choices. As always on Sunday, needs trump analysis, but here's a preview of a couple of the better choices.
Since 2014, Josh Tomlin has tossed 192 2/3 innings with a 7.8 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. It's time he was taken seriously by more than the 20 percent that own him in ESPN leagues -- especially with the Kansas City Royals missing Mike Moustakas. They can be kept in check by right-handers, which makes Tomlin an option for a Sunday spot start.
Lefties continue to give the Philadelphia Phillies fits, as evidenced by a 0.262 wOBA and 26 percent strikeout rate under these circumstances. Justin Nicolino is only owned in four percent of ESPN leagues, but that's sure to climb as the Miami Marlins host the Phillies.
Chris Tillman's early season 9.3 K/9 is due for a tumble, considering his career mark is 6.8. The Oakland Athletics don't fan much, but they're also not overly productive against righties, carrying a 0.299 wOBA into Camden Yards. With the visitors countering with Kendall Graveman, the win is very much in play for Tillman.
Avoid
Aside from the game scores sitting at 45 or below, Ross Stripling taking the mound in Rogers Centre and Kendall Graveman toeing the rubber in Baltimore both pose threats if you're looking to protect your ratios.
Hitting
Looking at the weekend scores, you'd think the series between Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants was being played a mile high, as opposed to by the Bay, but it's been more a matter of good hitting beating up on bad pitching than park effects. The Giants' left-handed contingent has another chance to do some damage with Eddie Butler taking the AT&T bump. Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are all in a great spot.
Thus far, the Detroit Tigers have been quiet against lefties -- but you know it's only a matter of time before Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos and Victor Martinez get it going. With Texas Rangers southpaw Martin Perez on the Comerica Park hill, that time could come sooner rather than later.
Mike Foltynewicz is the latest to be auditioned for a spot in the rotation by the Atlanta Braves -- and with a career 1.90 HR/9, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in position to flex their muscles in Turner Field. Jake Lamb and David Peralta have the platoon edge over the right-hander, while Jean Segura and Paul Goldschmidt are also threats.
The Milwaukee Brewers have come up short a couple of times already in their series against the Cincinnati Reds in the Great American Ballpark. With lefty John Lamb on the hill for the hosts, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter and Jonathan Lucroy will vie for a bit of redemption for the guests.
Most likely to hit a home run: John Lamb is a fly ball pitcher working in homer-friendly Great American Ballpark. Chris Carter is good at hitting home runs.
Most likely to steal a base: Sometimes chalk is the best call, and even though he's been appearing frequently in this space, any time the Reds play the Brewers, Billy Hamilton tops the list of potential thieves.