In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present daily notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster in which we project the best pitcher game scores, as well as the best team-hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.
Pitching
Elite
Rules of thumb are made to be broken, too, right? With the adjusted Game Score tabulation, we're using 60 as the threshold for elite. No one makes the cut on Monday, but Johnny Cueto is close enough that we'll do him a solid and call his matchup elite for DFS purposes. He's penalized a bit for an away tilt in the Great American Ballpark, a wonderful hitter's venue. On the other hand, he has tossed at least seven frames in all five of his outings this season, and for DFS scoring, innings are second only to strikeouts in relevance. Facing a Cincinnati Reds club that sports a below-average weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus righties, along with a slightly above-average strikeout rate, gives Cueto a nice platform for another strong game. He's the clear-cut option for cash games and is in play for GPP action as well.
Solid
Despite working in the comfort of their home parks, both of which are pitcher's havens, neither Adam Wainwright nor Gerrit Cole profile as great DFS candidates. Wainwright will take the hill in Busch Stadium in the opener of a set against the Philadelphia Phillies. The visitors aren't especially dangerous, toting with them a wOBA and strikeout rate both a little worse than league average against right-handers, but the Redbirds' veteran hasn't shown he can take full advantage. Wainwright hasn't pitched more than six frames yet, and has posted a meek 4.5 K/9.
Cole toes the rubber in PNC Park, taking on a Chicago Cubs squad that has clubbed righties to the tune of a .363 wOBA while fanning at just a 19 percent clip. An argument can be made that anyone is a candidate for tournament play, but if you're looking for the typical safety and reliability intrinsic to cash play, neither Wainwright nor Cole elicit the warm and fuzzies.
There's a contingent of fantasy players that are amenable to using Colorado Rockies pitchers on the road. On paper it makes sense, especially when the road leads to Petco Park. However, keep in mind there's an intrinsic skills bump a pitcher enjoys at home, independent of the park, so make sure the matchup is so good it compensates for a slight baseline peripheral drop away from home. Jon Gray has been summoned by the Rockies and will make his third start of the season, the first away from Coors, against the San Diego Padres. Considering the Friars strike out at a 26 percent pace versus righties with a vacuous .275 wOBA, this qualifies as one of those scenarios in which the drop in basal skills isn't a concern.
Owners of Dallas Keuchel in seasonal formats are rightfully concerned about their perceived ace. His velocity and strikeouts are down, while his walks are up. If there's an elixir for scuffling southpaws, it's facing the Minnesota Twins, as they check in with a generous 26 percent strikeout rate and weak .269 wOBA versus left-handers. Jose Berrios opposes Keuchel. While the rookie is a top prospect with a wonderful future in store, he's still green and isn't likely to go deep into the contest, putting the soft Twins bullpen in play, increasing the chance for a win for Keuchel. All totaled and we're looking at a perfect tournament option.
Streamers
Let's switch gears to seasonal formats and look at an interesting group of potential streaming options. Start or sit is especially tough on Monday, since you're working blind with respect to needs. Your mileage may vary, but the most successful head-to-head players tend to be aggressive early in the week.
James Shields isn't punching out hitters at the elevated clip he exhibited last season, and with the Colorado Rockies and their 20 percent whiff rate in town, he isn't likely to have a huge night. But in the comfort of Petco Park, the veteran righty is worth a go.
There's some risk as the Pittsburgh Pirates hit righties well, but Jason Hammel is still in play as the Chicago Cubs travel to the Steel City.
Edinson Volquez is available in only 17 percent of ESPN leagues, so chances are you can't grab him off the wire. However, after his last outing that saw the Los Angeles Angels score eight times with 12 hits in five frames, his owners may be gun-shy. Fret not, he's back at home in the comfort of Kauffman Stadium, facing a Washington Nationals squad that carries a pedestrian .292 wOBA against right-handers.
Oakland Athletics righty Kendall Graveman won't rack up a plethora of strikeouts, but with O. Co. Coliseum at his back and the Seattle Mariners in the batter's box, Graveman should lend decent ratio support to begin the week.
Jimmy Nelson is more dominant than Graveman, but don't anticipate a boatload of whiffs from him either, as the Los Angeles Angels head to Miller Park for an interleague set with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Halos struggle to tally runs, but they don't struggle to make contact. Nelson is fine for seasonal, but the lack of strikeouts make it tough for DFS deployment.
Avoid
Texas Rangers righty A.J. Griffin may have recorded a sparkling 1.04 WHIP to this point, but his 6.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 are both worse than league average. His early success is fueling a 54 Game Score, but with a date against the Toronto Blue Jays in Rogers Centre, that usually reliable Game Score seems optimistic.
Jered Weaver is a fly ball pitcher, prone to the home run. Miller Park is one of the best home run venues in the league. No thanks.
Mike Foltynewicz has been summoned by the Atlanta Braves to take the rotation spot of Bud Norris. Facing a New York Mets squad that sports a .340 wOBA versus righties does not bode well for Foltynewicz's first big league start of 2016.
Philadelphia Phillies veteran Jeremy Hellickson has been inconsistent so far. It's not worth the risk that the good version shows up in Busch Stadium, considering the St. Louis Cardinals are winging a .373 wOBA against righties.
Hitters
Perhaps more of a gut call than by the numbers, the Toronto Blue Jays' power hitters square off against a non-dominant fly ball pitcher in A.J. Griffin. This time last year, this would have been a chalk play, so let's eschew recency bias and call for the Jays to revert back to their high-flying ways. Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are all threats to go deep.
After being stifled by Madison Bumgarner in the drizzle on Sunday, the New York Mets will be glad to see Mike Foltynewicz on the Citi Field hill. Lefty Curtis Granderson will be back at leadoff while fellow lefty Michael Conforto occupies the three-hole. Lucas Duda will also return to the lineup in his usual spot, following cleanup hitter Yoenis Cespedes. Add in Neil Walker, and they're all in play.
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a similar spot as the Blue Jays, less the part in which they led the league in runs scored last season. They too are facing a fly ball pitcher with a weak fastball in Jered Weaver. Look for Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter and Kirk Nieuwenhuis to swing from the heels against the Los Angeles Angels' right-hander.
The Houston Astros wrap up the Monday slate with a date against heralded rookie Jose Berrios and the ensuing Minnesota Twins' soft bullpen. Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus are all in line for a productive evening.
Most likely to hit a homer: Ryan Braun has the experience not to be fooled by Weaver and his 82 mph mediumball. Look for Braun to be patient and send one over the fence.
Most likely to steal a base: The Pittsburgh Pirates have emerged as a team that struggles to control the running game. Jason Heyward hasn't gone deep yet, but he certainly has his running shoes on, so look for the Chicago Cubs' outfielder to get the green light and take advantage on the base paths.