Daniel Ricciardo has played down Red Bull's impressive Friday practice pace in Belgium and says he expects to be in a tight three-way fight behind Mercedes with Ferrari and Williams on Saturday.
Ricciardo finished best of the rest behind Mercedes in both FP1 and FP2 as Red Bull excelled in the middle sector, which rewards downforce and does not have the long straights of sectors one and three. By contrast, Ferrari looked to be out of sorts in FP2, while Williams was in the lower reaches of the timing screens all day, though it has the habit of hiding its true pace on Fridays.
Though pleased with how Friday panned out Ricciardo, who won at Spa last year, admits Red Bull was surprised by its pace.
Asked if he thinks he can win again this year, Ricciardo replied: "I hate to say no, but Merc are still I believe are too quick. They might even turn up [the engine] a bit more on Saturday. Generally if we can stay third and fourth then we are pretty pleased.
"We didn't really expect to be this far up today, but we know that Williams always turn it on on Saturday, and that Ferrari I'm sure will find a bit more. So it is going to closer tomorrow. But to win we will need a helping hand again from Merc. A podium would be nice. Let's see how we go. We've got tomorrow to deal with. It will close up a lot more."
Despite his cautious outlook Ricciardo admits the prospect of a tighter field has him excited about the prospect of qualifying tomorrow.
"Yes, definitely. It is nice when you see that it is close because you know that if you put the perfect lap together that maybe one tenth can move you up two or three places, so that challenge is nice and fun. It's cool - all the drivers in that little group - we are all thinking the same, so it is fun."
There has been rain at Spa for every F1 weekend since 2007 and Ricciardo admits it will be part of the equation on Sunday. "The rain, you never know here, it sounds like it may come towards the end of the race on Sunday. It can change too quickly. So that could also play a part."