March 19
The New York Yankees desperately want Chuck Knoblauch in their 2001 lineup. Unfortunately, four months of winter don't seem to have solved Knoblauch's fielding woes, so now the club is apparently shifting him to left field.
So what kind of left fielder would Chuck Knoblauch be? Cobbling together three projections printed by reputable analysts, we can expect Knoblauch to post in the neighborhood of a .365 on-base percentage and a .410 slugging average -- a 775 OPS.
Not bad for a second baseman. In fact, a 775 OPS might well rank Knoblauch in the upper third of American League second basemen ... but if he doesn't play second base, that really doesn't do the Yankees any good, does it? Because a 775 OPS might rank as the very worst figure for an everyday American League left fielder. Sure, we can cut Knoblauch a little slack. His strength is on-base percentage, and that's somewhat more valuable than slugging. So let's bump his OPS to 800. Shoot, let's make it 825!
But remember, these are the Yankees. It's hard for me to believe that the New York Yankees can't find a left fielder likely to do better than an 825 OPS.
In fact, once the Yankees get Shane Spencer in action -- and he's supposed to be ready sometime in May -- the club will have three other viable options in left field: Spencer, Henry Rodriguez and Glenallen Hill. Here are OPS for all three of them, for both 2000 and the last five seasons combined:
Rodriguez Spencer Hill
2000 OPS 809 790 936
1996-2000 OPS 856 819 860
None of these guys are world-beaters; better hitters than Knoblauch, perhaps, but hardly worth shaking up the lineup for.
Ah, but those numbers came against all kinds of pitchers. What if we take the left-handed-hitting Rodriguez, and platoon him with Hill and/or Spencer? Here's how they all fared against their "opposites":
Rodriguez Spencer Hill
2000 OPS 820 772 963
1996-2000 OPS 895 977 921
Those are some fairly impressive numbers. Of course, even with a strict platoon, Rodriguez will face some lefties, and Spencer/Hill will face some righties. But it doesn't seem like a stretch to suggest that a left-field platoon of two Yankees already on the roster would provide significantly greater production than Knoblauch would.
And defense? None of these guys are even average, but could they be much worse than Knoblauch? Except for a single game in 1993, Knoblauch hasn't played the outfield since 1987, when he was an 18-year-old freshman at Texas A&M. While it's never smart to underestimate the ability of a world-class athlete to make adjustments, can Knoblauch make the adjustment from scatter-armed second baseman to adequate left fielder in the next month or three?
Maybe. But if adequate's as good as it gets, then the Yankees are probably better off with the other guys anyway.
Ah, but it's not that simple. As every Yankees fan knows (and can't wait to tell me), "Knoblauch is the leadoff hitter, and the lineup works well with him at the top of the order followed by Derek Jeter."
And of course, you're never going to see Henry Rodriguez or Glenallen Hill batting leadoff. Jeter, a superb baserunner who's likely to post a .400-plus OBP, is an obvious candidate. But then who bats No. 2?
Jorge Posada posted an outstanding .417 OBP last year, but he also struck out 151 times, and managers don't like No. 2 hitters who strike out.
Bernie Williams? Too much power.
David Justice? Ditto.
Paul O'Neill or Tino Martinez? At this point, you want both of them as close to the bottom of the lineup as possible.
Scott Brosius? Dude, that idea is so 20th century.
That leaves us with one choice: Alfonso Soriano, who's in line for Knoblauch's job.
And finally, we find the American Horse Fly in the Yankees' ointment. Because if Soriano does earn a regular job with the club, he'll eventually earn a slot at or near the bottom of the batting order. You see, there's very little evidence that Soriano can be a productive major-league hitter in 2001. STATS projects him for a .302 on-base percentage, .412 slugging. Baseball Prospectus predicts a .294 OBP, .418 slugging.
In other words, another Scott Brosius. And when you've already got one Scott Brosius in the lineup -- not to mention a Paul O'Neill and a Tino Martinez -- you can ill-afford another.
Of course, the Yankee camp is all abuzz with tales of Soriano's spring hitting feats ... he's batting .375 and slugging .625!
On the other hand, Soriano has drawn the grand total of one walk. More to the point, that .375 batting average and .625 slugging average have been compiled in 56 at-bats, which is nothing but an eye blink, something like a century in geological time. Teams that award jobs to players based on spring-training stats generally wind up regretting it.
D'Angelo Jimenez, who missed most of last year after breaking his neck in a car accident, is a better player than Soriano. He's always been a better player than Soriano, although he doesn't impress the scouts like Soriano does. He hasn't hit particularly well this spring, but if he's healthy, he should be the Yankees' second baseman rather than Soriano or Knoblauch.
That's not going to happen, though, because even intelligent franchises occasionally worship at the altar of numbers that don't count. So barring the unlikely elevation of Jimenez, what should the Yankees do?
On a purely statistical level, they might be better off leaving Knoblauch at second base, and living with the errors. But you can't really fault them for doing otherwise; it's just a hard thing to watch, day in and day out. Frankly, the Yankees should probably just cut their losses, by (1) cutting Knoblauch; (2) trading for a one-year solution at second base; and (3) sending Jimenez to Columbus to work on his double-play pivot.
Of course, they're not going to jettison Knoblauch. He's been a big part of their success, and the Yankees have been loyal to players like him. That loyalty, too, has been a big part of their success ... but in the end, loyalty just might drag them down.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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