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Thursday, March 15
Numbers point to Hoosiers' struggles
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com
The firing of Bob Knight just might be the best thing that's happened to Indiana basketball since the hiring of Bobby Knight.
Wasn't it just a few months ago that basketball fans in Bloomington were storming across the campus like the townspeople at the end of "Young Frankenstein," looking for someone to burn in effigy? How dare the school's administration fire a coach who had guided the beloved Hoosiers to three NCAA championships!
Nobody's been complaining much lately, however, as interim coach Mike Davis guided the Hoosiers to a 10-6 record in the conference, then got them to within three points of the Big 10 tournament title and earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Amazingly enough, Davis still carries the "interim" tag, and just last weekend, CBS's Billy Packer suggested that Davis might be jettisoned in favor of Iowa coach (and 1987 Hoosiers hero) Steve Alford. This, even though one can make a pretty good case that Indiana is actually better off with Davis than they were with Knight.
Bob Knight deserved credit for getting his team to the Tournament, year in and year out. After an impressive run in the 1970s, beginning in 1980 Knight guided the Hoosiers to 20 tourney berths in 21 years (missing only in 1985). And in 1987, of course, Indiana won the national championship.
But when Knight was recently asked how strange it would be for him to watch the tournament rather than coach in it, he responded, "The last couple of years I've done more watching than I did coaching."
It's been more than a couple of years. Since winning that championship in 1987, Knight's teams have generally performed miserably in late March.
In 1988, the No. 4-seeded Hoosiers fell in the first round to Richmond, 72-69, in what was then one of the tournament's most famous upsets.
In 1989, the No. 2-seeded Hoosiers reached the Sweet 16, where they lost to No. 3 seed Seton Hall. No shame there, as the Pirates eventually took Michigan to overtime in the title game.
In 1990, the No. 8-seeded Hoosiers lost in the first round to No. 9-seeded California.
In 1991, the No. 2-seeded Hoosiers repeated their '89 performance, reaching the third round before bowing to a No. 3 (Kansas). More disturbing than the losses, perhaps, was their margins: 13 points to Seton Hall, 18 points to the Jayhawks.
In 1992, again with a No. 2 seed, Knight's Hoosiers reached the Final Four, taking out No. 1 seed UCLA on the way. In what remains Indiana's finest showing since 1987, the Hoosiers lost to eventual champ Duke in the national semifinals.
In 1993, Indiana earned its first No. 1 seed since 1987. The Hoosiers failed to reach the Final Four, falling to No. 2 seed Kansas in the Midwest finals.
In 1994, the fifth-seeded Hoosiers did well enough, winning two games. But their third-round loss came, not against top-seeded North Carolina, but against ninth-seeded Boston College.
In 1995, No. 9-seeded Indiana dropped its first-round game against Missouri.
In 1996, sixth-seeded Indiana lost in the first round to No. 11 seed Boston College (and scored only 51 points, to B.C.'s 64).
And in 1997, yet another first-round loss, Indiana's third in three years. This time the Hoosiers were a No. 8 seed and got hammered by Colorado, 80-62.
In 1998 and '99, Knight's charges actually survived the first round, but lost to higher-seeded teams in the second round.
But then a year ago, Indiana lost in the first round to lightly-regarded Pepperdine ... by 20 points (77-57).
Adding up those 13 seasons statistically, aside from simple wins and losses, there are a couple of things we can look at: Expected Wins and Wins and Losses vs. Seed.
Expected Wins are based on a team's seed entering the tournament. We "expect? a No. 1 seed to win (at least) four games, a No. 2 seed to win three games (before losing to a No. 1 in a regional final), etc., and any team seeded No. 9 or lower to win zero games. In a similar vein, a "Win vs. Seed" is any victory over a higher-seeded team, and a "Loss vs. Seed" is any loss to a lower-seeded team. Here's how Indiana fared under Knight since 1988:
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Years
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Won-Lost
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Expected
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W-L vs Seed
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1988-2000
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15-13
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22
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2-9
|
In other words, since 1988 the Hoosiers have won seven fewer games than their seeds would have predicted. What's more, they've won just two games against teams seeded higher than themselves, and they've lost nine games against teams seeded lower.
And Knight's Hoosiers look even worse if the clock starts in 1995 ...
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Years
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Won-Lost
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Expected
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W-L vs Seed
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|
1995-2000
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2-6
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5
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0-3
|
Six tournaments, two victories (when five were expected) and zero wins against teams seeded higher than themselves.
Of course, Mike Davis hasn't coached the Hoosiers in an NCAA Tournament yet, so there's certainly no assurance that he'll do any better. But he could hardly do worse. And after one season, there's no evidence that he's not Knight's equal before the tournament, too.
In his last five seasons, 1996 through 2000, Knight guided the Hoosiers to a 50-38 record in Big 10 games (including the conference tournament), for a .568 winning percentage. In his first season, Davis' Hoosiers went 12-7 against Big 10 teams, for a .632 winning percentage.
By any measure, Mike Davis has matched Bob Knight's recent success. And given that Davis is considered a talented recruiter, the program seems to be in great hands for the future.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His baseball column runs Monday through Thursday, and in 1996 he published "March Madness: Picking the Winners." You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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