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NBA free agency: Ranking the 20 best free agents for 2021

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Perkins loves Lonzo's fit with the Bulls (1:06)

Kendrick Perkins reacts to Lonzo Ball reportedly heading from New Orleans to Chicago in a sign-and-trade agreement. (1:06)

Which NBA free agents can offer teams the most help over the next three seasons?

To try to answer that question statistically, I've put together three-year projections for all of this year's free agents based on two factors:

  • Box-score projections from my SCHOENE system, which utilizes the development of similar players at the same age

  • Luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com, which measures how much players have helped their teams' net ratings over the past three seasons after accounting for their teammates and opponents

The two components cover both ways of capturing player value, directly from box-score stats and indirectly from their team impact.

Some of the results confirm conventional wisdom, including the top two free agents on the market. Others are more surprising. Let's take a look at my top 20 projections for NBA free agency.