Betting tips for Sunday's final matches of the Premier League season

Son Heung-Min is one goal behind in the race for the Golden Boot. Getty

The Premier League season comes to an end on Sunday with Matchday 38, as all 10 games kick off simultaneously in England.

Neither the title nor the top four are officially decided, though each race has a heavy favorite with one game to go, with Manchester City most likely to lift the trophy and Tottenham probable to make Champions League.

Here are my best bets for the final matchday of the Premier League season.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.


Title race

Liverpool vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
11 a.m. ET


Pick: Wolverhampton +2.5 goals (-170)

First-place Manchester City leads Liverpool by one point and six in goal difference, meaning that City clinches the title with a home win vs. Aston Villa, or a draw and a Liverpool draw, or a Liverpool home loss against Wolverhampton. Liverpool's simplest title path is a win and a Man City loss or draw.

Note that goal difference is a non-factor in determining the league winner (assuming City doesn't lose by six or more goals), because if Liverpool wins, the Reds cannot finish tied with Man City on points, so the goal-difference tiebreaker would not be needed.

Mo Salah and Virgil van Dijk were both injured in last week's FA Cup final, and both sat out Tuesday's match because of those injuries. Each could also miss Sunday's game or play a limited role ahead of next week's Champions League final, particularly if Man City has a big lead over Aston Villa.

Liverpool has also been relatively sluggish the past few games, perhaps the result of playing 61 games already this season. The Liverpool defense has surrendered more than one expected goal in four of the past five games, after doing so in 27 of 56 games prior to that. The attack has also slowed, scoring a total of five goals in the past four games, with 1.7 expected goals per game. During their hot run over the previous two months, the Reds had been averaging 2.1 goals and 2.1 expected goals per game.

All that to say: Liverpool won't blow this game against a Wolves team with nothing to play for, but it won't likely be a blowout either. Wolves' Jose Sa has been the league's best keeper this season, and I'll take them to stay within two goals.


Manchester City vs. Aston Villa

11 a.m. ET


Pick: Man City -2.5 goals (+130)

Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard would of course love to slow down City and give his former club a title chance, so expect a defensive mindset. However, Villa has lost all nine games against top-five teams this season, scoring a total of five goals and averaging 11 shots, while conceding 21 goals and an average of 15 shots. Just like in their December meeting, City is going to have two-thirds of the ball and dominate this game.

Man City has a full week's rest and has been crushing opponents at home lately, winning three straight home games by a combined score of 13-1. It's difficult to see City losing this game, or even to imagine magic will be necessary, like Sergio Aguero's title-winning goal a decade ago.

Pep Guardiola's side has also finished seasons well recently. In three straight years and four of the past five, Man City has scored at least four goals and won by at least three in the Premier League finale. I like that margin to happen again, especially getting plus-money, as City leaves no doubt about the trophy.


Top-4 race

Norwich City vs. Tottenham Hotspur
11 a.m. ET


Pick: Tottenham over 2.5 goals (-115)

Before last Thursday's North London derby, Arsenal had a four-point lead over Tottenham and an 80% chance to finish in the top four, according to FiveThirtyEight's Soccer Power Index. After the Gunners lost to both Tottenham and Newcastle, Spurs now hold a two-point lead and a sizable goal-difference advantage. SPI projects Tottenham as a 96% favorite to claim a top-four spot and the accompanying Champions League berth.

The only realistic way Arsenal can finish fourth is with a home win over now-safe Everton and a Tottenham loss at already-relegated Norwich City. In addition to Tottenham's top-four motivation, Son Heung-Min is chasing the Golden Boot (and trying to cash my 40-1 ticket!), as he's one goal behind Salah entering Sunday. Son and Harry Kane will go against a Norwich side that ranks last in the league in goals against, expected goals against and shot quality conceded (0.13 xG/shot).

Norwich has surrendered at least three goals in eight of nine games against top-five teams this season, and there's no reason to think this game will be different. Tottenham beat Norwich 3-0 in December and should score a trio of goals again Sunday.

Former ESPN senior researcher Paul Carr is director of content for TruMedia.