College football betting nuggets: Conference championship weekend

Jaylen Warren and Oklahoma State will play for the Big 12 championship. AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Friday

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-1.5, 72.5) at UTSA Roadrunners, 7 ET

  • UTSA has covered six straight games when the line is between -3 and +3, including 3-0 ATS under Jeff Traylor (since 2020).

  • Western Kentucky is 9-3 ATS this season (tied third-best cover percentage in FBS), including five straight covers.

  • Western Kentucky has covered four straight games as a favorite, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS.

  • UTSA is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss, including 3-1 ATS under Traylor.

  • Western Kentucky has covered five straight games against conference opponents, tied for the longest active streak in FBS (North Texas, Old Dominion).

  • The under is 5-1 in UTSA home games this season (1-5 in road games).

No. 10 Oregon Ducks vs No. 14 Utah Utes (-3, 59.5), 8 ET on ABC

  • Utah is 27-13-1 ATS in games against conference opponents over the last five seasons (all under Kyle Whittingham), the second-best cover percentage in FBS over that span. That includes 22-11 ATS as a favorite.

  • Four straight games involving Oregon against an AP-ranked opponent have gone under the total.

  • Oregon is 6-2 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since 2018, Mario Cristobal's first full season as head coach.

Saturday

No. 9 Baylor Bears vs No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-5.5, 46.5), Noon ET on ABC

  • Oklahoma State is 9-2-1 ATS this season, the second-best cover percentage in FBS behind Michigan (10-2 ATS). That includes 6-2-1 ATS as a favorite and 8-0-1 ATS against conference opponents.

  • Oklahoma State is 15-6-1 ATS against ranked teams in the last five seasons (all under Mike Gundy). Baylor is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents over that same span, including 5-1 ATS under Dave Aranda (since 2020).

  • Oklahoma State is 18-7-3 against Baylor since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, including 11-6 ATS under Gundy (since 2005).

  • The under is 12-4 in December games involving Oklahoma State under Gundy. The Cowboys have covered 11 of those 16 games.

Kent State Golden Flashes (-3, 74) vs Northern Illinois Huskies, Noon ET on ESPN

  • Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 under Thomas Hammock (since 2019), including 3-0 ATS this season.

  • Kent State is 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

  • Kent State is 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • The over is 5-0-1 in Northern Illinois' last six games (over 2-4 in first six games this season).

  • Northern Illinois has failed to cover seven straight games in December (0-2 ATS under Hammock).

  • Kent State is 11-5 ATS in games in November or later under Sean Lewis (since 2018). The over is also 12-4 in those games.

Utah State Aggies at No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (-6, 50), 3 ET

  • Utah State is 5-1 ATS in road games this season.

  • Utah State has covered five of its last six games after starting the season 3-3 ATS.

  • San Diego State has covered four of the last five meetings.

  • The under is 10-4 in San Diego State games against conference opponents since 2020, the beginning of Brady Hoke's second stint with the team.

  • The under is 8-2 in games involving San Diego State in November or later since 2020.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3, 53) at No. 20 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, 3:30 ET on ESPN

  • Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in road games this season.

  • This will be third time Louisiana is a home underdog under Billy Napier (since 2018). The Ragin' Cajuns won the previous two games outright.

  • The under is 5-1 in Louisiana home games this season (9-3 overall).

  • Appalachian State has covered five of its last six games after starting the season 3-3 ATS.

  • Appalachian State is 2-19 outright against AP-ranked opponents all-time. One of those wins came this season against No. 14 Coastal Carolina.

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 50) vs No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, 4 ET

  • This would be the largest underdog Alabama has been under Nick Saban (since 2007) since giving 10 points to No. 2 Florida in the 2008 SEC Championship. The Crimson Tide have given six or more points four previous times under Saban and are 1-2-1 ATS in those games. Overall, Alabama is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog under Saban.

  • This would snap Alabama's 92-game streak as a favorite, the longest streak by any team since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

  • Nick Saban is 3-0 outright against Kirby Smart, all as a favorite (1-2 ATS).

  • The under is 4-0 in games involving Georgia against AP-ranked opponents this season.

  • The total has gone over in eight of the last nine meetings.

  • Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight games against conference opponents. The Crimson Tide haven't had 4 straight ATS losses against conference opponents since a 6-game streak from 2002-03.

  • Georgia is 7-3 ATS in games in December or later under Kirby Smart (since 2016).

No. 16 Houston Cougars at No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (-10.5, 53.5), 4 ET on ABC

  • Houston is 7-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2015, including 3-1 ATS under Dana Holgorsen (since 2019).

  • Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Houston is 15-5 ATS against AP top-5 teams since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the best cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 10 games).

  • Houston is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog, including 5-2 ATS under Holgorsen.

  • Houston has failed to cover five straight games in December or later.

  • The under is 11-2 in Cincinnati games against AP-ranked opponents under Luke Fickell (since 2017).

  • The over is 5-1 in Houston road games this season (2-3 in home games).

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 43.5) vs No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes, 8 ET

  • This would be the fourth straight Big Ten Championship game with a double-digit spread. The underdog is 2-1 ATS in the previous three.

  • Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, the best cover percentage in FBS. That includes 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

  • Iowa has covered seven straight games against AP-ranked opponents, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS with Fresno State. Tulsa has covered 11 straight such games.

  • The over is 5-1 in games involving Michigan against an AP-ranked opponent over the last two seasons.

  • Iowa is 11-5 ATS against AP top-5 teams under Kirk Ferentz (since 1999), the fourth-best cover percentage in FBS over that span. That includes a 7-1 ATS mark since 2010.

  • Iowa is 14-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2000.

  • Iowa is 14-6 ATS in games in December or later under Ferentz, including five straight covers dating to 2017.

No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 72.5) vs No. 18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 8 ET on ABC

  • This would be the smallest spread in an ACC Championship since No. 12 Georgia Tech was a 1-point favorite against No. 25 Clemson in 2009.

  • Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS this season (all as a favorite), tied for the third-best cover percentage in FBS (North Texas, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame).

  • Pittsburgh is 11-5-2 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 under Pat Narduzzi (since 2015).

  • Wake Forest is 15-5 ATS against AP-ranked opponents under Dave Clawson (since 2014), including 3-0 ATS since 2020.

  • The over is 6-1 in games involving Wake Forest in November or later since 2020.

  • This would be the highest total in a game involving Pittsburgh under Narduzzi. The current high is 72 on November 11, 2021 against North Carolina, which went under (53).