NFL betting market watch: Surging Patriots attract big Super Bowl bet

The Patriots were 100-1 to win the Super Bowl on Oct. 31 but now sit at 25-1. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

The resurgent New England Patriots, winners of four in a row, are shooting up the odds to win the Super Bowl and attracting big bets at U.S. sportsbooks.

On Oct. 31, the Patriots were 100-1 long shots to win the Super Bowl at Caesars Sportsbook. Two weeks later, New England is 25-1 and behind only four teams in the AFC.

The Buffalo Bills are 6-1 and co-Super Bowl favorites with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs are each 11-1, and the Baltimore Ravens are 13-1.

The Patriots' surge attracted a big bet Tuesday in Las Vegas. BetMGM reported taking a $20,000 Super Bowl bet on the Patriots at 25-1 at the Bellagio sportsbook. The bet would pay a net $500,000 if New England wins the Super Bowl.


NFL market watch

Here is our weekly look at how the NFL betting market is shaping up leading into the weekend.

For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week's games. Most numbers were reopened Sunday night.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (Thursday)

Look-ahead line: Patriots -4, 46
Sunday: Patriots -5.5, 46.5
Wednesday: Patriots -7 (-105), 47.5
Spread action: 78% of bets and 77% of the money wagered is on the Patriots.
Total action: 59% of bets and 57% of the money wagered is on the over.

Notes: Atlanta RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns

Look-ahead line: Browns -10, 46
Sunday: Browns -9.5, 45.5
Wednesday: Browns -10, 44.5
Spread action: 57% of bets and 80% of the money wagered is on the Browns.
Total action: 53% of bets and 96% of the money wagered is on the under.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

Look-ahead line: Bills -6.5, 50
Sunday: Bills -6.5, 50
Wednesday: Bills -7 (-120), 50
Spread action: 62% of the bets are on the Colts, but 84% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 50% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered is on the over.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Look-ahead line: Titans -10.5, 46.5
Sunday: Titans -10, 45.5
Wednesday: Titans -10, 45
Spread action: 52% of the bets and 51% of the money wagered is on the Texans.
Total action: 58% of the bets are on the over, but 58% of the money wagered is on the under.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Look-ahead line: Dolphins -2.5, 45.5
Sunday: Dolphins -3, 45.5
Wednesday: Dolphins -3 (-120), 45
Spread action: 68% of the bets and 89% of the money wagered is on the Dolphins.
Total action: 73% of the bets and 88% of the money wagered is on the under.

Notes: Veteran QB Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

Look-ahead line: Pick 'em, 43.5
Sunday: Eagles -1.5, 43.5
Wednesday: Eagles -1.5, 43.5
Spread action: 61% of the bets are on the Saints, but 94% of the money wagered is on the Eagles.
Total action: 82% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the over.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers

Look-ahead line: Panthers -2.5, 43
Sunday: Panthers -2.5, 43.5
Wednesday: Panthers -3.5, 43
Spread action: 62% of the bets and 80% of the money wagered is on the Panthers.
Total action: 68% of the bets are on the over, but 81% of the money wagered is on the under.

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Look-ahead line: 49ers -5.5, 46.5
Sunday: 49ers -5.5, 46.5
Wednesday: 49ers -6.5, 45.5
Spread action: 77% of the bets and 55% of the money wagered is on the 49ers.
Total action: 76% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the under.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

Look-ahead line: Ravens -6, 45
Sunday: Ravens -6, 45
Wednesday: Ravens -5.5, 45
Spread action: 78% of the bets are on the Ravens, but 91% of the money wagered is on the Bears.
Total action: 56% of the bets are on the under, 58% of the money wagered is on the over.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Look-ahead line: Packers -2, 50.5
Sunday: Packers -2.5, 49.5
Wednesday: Packers -2.5, 49
Spread action: 85% of the bets and 81% of the money wagered is on the Packers.
Total action: 64% of the bets and 75% of the money wagered is on the under.

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders

Look-ahead line: Pick 'em, 48.5
Sunday: Pick 'em, 48.5
Wednesday: Bengals -1, 49.5
Spread action: 58% of the bets and 66% of the money wagered is on the Bengals.
Total action: 59% of the bets and 96% of the money wagered is on the over.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Look-ahead line: Chiefs -2.5, 53.5
Sunday: Chiefs -2.5, 53.5
Wednesday: Chiefs -2.5, 55.5
Spread action: 52% of the bets and 87% of the money wagered is on the Chiefs.
Total action: 52% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered is on the over.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Look-ahead line: Cardinals -1, 50.5
Sunday: Cardinals -2, 50.5
Wednesday: Cardinals -2.5, 49
Spread action: 66% of the bets are on the Cardinals, but 83% of the money wagered is on the Seahawks.
Total action: 82% of the bets and 94% of the money wagered is on the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Look-ahead line: N/A
Sunday: Chargers -3.5, 48.5
Wednesday: Chargers -3.5, 48.5
Spread action: 71% of the bets and 88% of the money wagered is on the Chargers.
Total action: 74% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered is on the under.

Notes: Chargers defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery were placed in the NFL's reserve/COVID-19 protocol on Tuesday and their availability for Sunday's game was unknown as of Wednesday. ... Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said on Tuesday that the team was building its game plan around backup QB Mason Rudolph, but Ben Roethlisberger has not completely ruled out yet. Roethlisberger missed last week's game after testing positive for COVID-19.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday)

Look-ahead line: Buccaneers -12.5, 51
Sunday: Buccaneers -11.5, 50.5
Wednesday: Buccaneers -11, 50.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 90% of the money wagered is on the Giants.
Total action: 79% of the bets and 69% of the money wagered is on the under.