College football betting nuggets: What to watch for in Week 7

Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Kentucky take on top-ranked Georgia this weekend. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Friday

Clemson Tigers (-14, 44.5) at Syracuse Orange, 7 ET on ESPN

  • If Clemson fails to cover, it would be its second time since the 1978 FBS/FCS split starting a season 0-5 ATS against FBS opponents. The other instance came in 2008, when Dabo Swinney took over part way through the season after the Tigers started 3-3 under Tommy Bowden.

  • Clemson under Dabo Swinney has never been favored by fewer than 13.5 points against Syracuse. That came in the first meeting under Swinney in 2013. Clemson covered in a 49-14 win.

  • Clemson has failed to cover six straight games, tied with New Mexico for the second-longest active streak in FBS.

  • Syracuse has covered four straight games, tied for the longest active streak in FBS (San Diego State).

California Golden Bears at No. 9 Oregon Ducks (-13.5, 54), 10:30 ET on ESPN

  • Oregon is 16-0 outright as a home double-digit favorite under Mario Cristobal. Only Clemson (23-0) and Alabama (19-0) have been better in that situation over that span.

  • Oregon has failed to cover seven straight games as a favorite, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS with Georgia Tech. Only New Mexico has a longer streak (eight straight).

  • California is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog under Justin Wilcox (since 2017). Only Eastern Michigan (14-4 ATS) has been better in those spots over the last five seasons (min. 15 games).

  • The under is 10-1 in games involving California under Wilcox when the Bears face a ranked opponent.

  • Oregon has failed to cover five straight conference games, only Purdue has a longer such streak among FBS teams (seven straight).

No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs (-9, 41) at San José State Spartans, 10:30 ET

  • San Diego State has covered four straight games, tied for the longest active streak in FBS (Syracuse).

  • San Diego State is 22-13-2 ATS under Brady Hoke (2009-10, 2020-21), including 5-2 ATS in conference play since the start of last season.

  • Brady Hoke is 33-22-2 ATS in his career as a favorite of seven or more points.

  • San José State is 1-5 ATS this season, including five straight ATS losses.

Saturday

UCF Knights at No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (-20.5, 57.5), Noon ET on ABC

  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS this season. Since Luke Fickell's second season as head coach in 2018, the Bearcats are a combined 18-5 ATS in games 1-6 compared to 8-11 ATS from game seven onward.

  • Cincinnati has been favored by 17 or more points against an FBS opponent eight times previously. The Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in those games.

  • This would be the fifth time in Gus Malzahn's career that his team is an underdog of at least 20 points. Malzahn is 1-3 ATS in the previous four instances.

  • UCF has covered five of its last six against AP top-10 teams.

No. 10 Michigan State Spartans (-4.5, 48.5) at Indiana Hoosiers, Noon ET

  • Indiana is 0-4 ATS against FBS opponents this season. The last time the Hoosiers started a season 0-5 ATS against FBS teams was 2008.

  • Indiana is 3-8-1 ATS as a home underdog under Tom Allen (since 2017).

  • Michigan State is 3-0 ATS in road games this season. This will be the first road game that the Spartans are favored under Melvin Tucker (since 2020). Prior to Tucker, Michigan State was 23-13 ATS under Mark Dantonio (2007-19) as a road favorite. The Spartans enter Saturday have covered four straight as a road favorite.

No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 25 Texas Longhorns (-5.5, 60), Noon ET

  • Oklahoma State is 14-6 ATS against ranked opponents over the last five seasons, the best cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 15 games).

  • Oklahoma State has covered 12 of its last 15 games as an underdog.

  • Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.

  • Texas is 4-1 under Steve Sarkisian as a favorite (all this season).

Auburn Tigers at No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5, 53), Noon ET

  • This would snap Arkansas' nine-game underdog streak against SEC opponents, the third-longest active streak in the conference (Vanderbilt, South Carolina).

  • In 30 previous meetings since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, Arkansas has been favored against Auburn just six times. The last instance came on Oct. 24, 2015 when the Razorbacks won 54-46 as 6.5-point favorites.

  • Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this season. The Razorbacks are looking to start 6-1 ATS for the second straight season after never having done so in any previous season since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

  • Auburn has covered four of the last five meetings.

  • Auburn is 1-6 ATS as an underdog since 2020.

  • The under is 10-2 in conference games involving Auburn since the start of last season.

  • The total has gone under in Auburn's last eight road games, the longest active streak in FBS.

No. 20 Florida Gators (-10.5, 59) at LSU Tigers, Noon ET on ESPN

  • This would be the second consecutive meeting that Florida is favored by double digits. That hasn't happened since 2000-01 when Steve Spurrier was head coach for the Gators and Nick Saban was at the helm for LSU.

  • Florida is 1-5 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including five straight ATS road losses. The Gators were favored in every game.

  • LSU is 17-10-1 ATS against ranked opponents under Ed Orgeron, including 8-4 ATS as an underdog.

No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5, 60.5) at Missouri Tigers, Noon ET

  • The Aggies are 25-0 outright in the last five seasons when favored by more than seven points; only Notre Dame (33-0) has been better in that situation. Alabama entered last week an FBS-best 52-0 in that situation before falling to the Aggies as an 18.5-point favorite.

  • Missouri is 0-6 ATS this season. The only other team with six ATS losses without a win is New Mexico.

  • The Tigers have failed to cover nine straight games dating to last season, the longest active streak in FBS.

  • Texas A&M is 9-4 ATS on the road under Jimbo Fisher (since 2018), including 6-0 ATS as a road favorite. The Aggies six ATS wins without a loss as a road favorite over that span are the most in FBS.

No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-23.5, 44.5), 3:30 ET

  • This would be the largest spread in an AP top-15 matchup since No. 1 Alabama was a 24-point favorite against No. 15 Florida in the 2016 SEC Championship. It would be tied for the fifth-largest spread in an AP top-15 matchup since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

  • Favorites of 21 or more points in AP top-15 matchups are 10-3 ATS since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

  • Georgia is 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Arkansas and Kentucky for the best cover percentage among SEC teams.

  • The under is 12-3 in Kentucky road games over the last three seasons.

Purdue Boilermakers at No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5, 43), 3:30 ET on ABC

  • Purdue has lost 44 straight games outright as a double-digit road underdog.

  • Purdue has covered four straight meetings against Iowa.

  • Purdue is 15-6 ATS as an underdog under Jeff Brohm (since 2017), the second-best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 20 games).

  • Purdue is 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Brohm. The Boilermakers are also 6-2 ATS as a road underdog under Brohm. The under is 7-1 in those games.

  • All five Purdue games have gone under the total this season.

  • Iowa is 5-1 ATS this season. The Hawkeyes are one of five teams with a double-digit cover margin per game.

No. 19 BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears (-6, 50.5), 3:30 ET on ESPN

  • This will be the 116th game since the 1978 FBS/FCS split that an unranked Baylor team has played a ranked opponent. The Bears have only been favored in three of the previous 115, and never by more than four; they covered in each of the previous three instances.

  • BYU is 10-3 ATS as a road underdog under Kalani Sitake (since 2016). The Cougars have covered 11 of their last 15 as an underdog, regardless of venue.

  • The under is 5-1 in games involving BYU this season.

No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17, 57.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7 ET on ESPN

  • Alabama is 6-12 ATS under Nick Saban following an outright loss (within the same season), including 1-6 ATS when favored by 14 or more points. The under is 13-4 in those games (excludes game in 2012 vs Western Carolina that is missing data).

  • AP top-5 teams are 5-1 ATS following an outright loss in the last five seasons, including 2-0 ATS for Alabama (within the same season). The under is 5-1 in those games.

  • Mike Leach is 21-9 ATS as an underdog of 14 or more points in his career (2-1 ATS with Mississippi State).

TCU Horned Frogs at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 65), 7:30 ET on ABC

  • TCU is 13-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Gary Patterson (since 2001). No other head coach has a better cover percentage than Patterson as a double-digit underdog since the 1978 FBS/FCS split (min. 15 games).

  • Oklahoma is 15-24 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Lincoln Riley (since 2017), including 4-11 ATS in its last 15 such games.

  • Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS against TCU under Riley.

  • TCU has covered 11 of its last 15 games against AP top-10 teams.

No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (-3, 82) at Tennessee Volunteers, 7:30 ET

  • Ole Miss has failed to cover seven straight when the line is between -3 and +3.

  • Ole Miss has failed to cover four straight conference games.

  • Josh Heupel is 1-4 outright in his career against ranked opponents.

  • This would be just the third time in Josh Heupel's head coaching career that his team is a home underdog. UCF lost 36-33 against Cincinnati last season and Tennessee lost 41-34 against Pittsburgh this season.

  • AP top-15 teams favored by three or fewer points against unranked opponents are 29-12 ATS since 2010, including 23-8 ATS on the road.

  • The under is 10-4 over the last five seasons when the total is 80 or higher.

  • 82 would be the highest total for a game between SEC opponents (or any game featuring an SEC team) over the last 20 seasons.

No. 22 NC State Wolfpack (-3, 52) at Boston College Eagles, 7:30 ET

  • NC State has failed to cover six straight games as a road favorite, tied with Arkansas for the longest active streak in FBS.

  • Boston College is 4-1 ATS this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the second-best cover percentage in the ACC.

  • Boston College is 6-2 ATS at home under Jeff Hafley (since 2020).

  • Boston College has lost 21 straight games outright against ranked opponents, the longest active streak among ACC teams. The next longest is Maryland (eight straight).

No. 18 Arizona State Sun Devils (Even, 51) at Utah Utes, 10 ET on ESPN

  • Utah is 1-4 ATS this season, tied for the worst cover percentage in the Pac-12 (Colorado, Oregon, Washington).

  • Arizona State is 2-7 ATS when ranked under Herm Edwards (since 2018).

  • Arizona State has covered four of its last five road games dating to last season.

  • Utah has covered eight straight games in October, the longest active streak in FBS.