NFL Week 3 betting nuggets: ATS, over/unders and trends

Dak Prescott hasn't had much luck ATS since last season, but hitting the over is another story. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Week 2 was another winning week for the underdogs, who went 9-7 ATS. Underdogs are now 21-11 ATS on the season, with road underdogs 13-5 ATS.

Week 3 has often been a bounce-back spot for struggling teams. Since 2010, teams to start 0-2 ATS are 50-33 ATS in their third game of the season (.602). That applies to five teams: the New York Jets, Washington Football Team, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs, who are now 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games.

Jacksonville and Detroit are both home underdogs of over a touchdown. In the last 25 seasons, teams in that situation are 37-21 ATS (.638) in August/September games. Assuming the Lions close as at least an eight-point underdog, they would be the first team to be at least an eight-point underdog in their first three games of a season since the 2008 St. Louis Rams.

Here are the top things to know for each game in Week 3.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change.


Thursday's game

Carolina Panthers (-8) at Houston Texans, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Quarterbacks making their first career start on Thursday games are 6-0 ATS over the last 10 seasons. They are 5-1 straight up despite being underdogs in all but one game. Excluding Week 1 Thursday games, those quarterbacks are 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU.

• Rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.

• Carolina is 7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season (under Matt Rhule), the best road cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• Houston has covered six of its past seven games as an underdog, including four straight.

• Since the start of the 2016 season, Carolina is 1-8 ATS in games with fewer than six days of rest.

Sam Darnold is a touchdown favorite for the first time in his career. Carolina has not been favored by over a touchdown since 2008.

Sunday's games

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-7.5), 1 p.m. ET

• Buffalo games have gone 13-7-1 to the over since the start of last season, including playoffs (0-2 this season).

• Buffalo is 12-6 ATS since the start of last season, tied with the Dolphins for the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• Buffalo has covered five of its past six as a favorite, while Washington has covered four of its past five as an underdog.

• Since the start of the 2017 season, Washington is 1-11 ATS in games that follow six or more days of rest.

• Washington is 0-2 ATS. Since 2010, teams to start 0-2 ATS are 50-33 ATS in their third game of the season (.602).

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7), 1 p.m. ET

Baker Mayfield is a touchdown favorite for the sixth time in his career. He is 2-3 ATS in that situation.

• Matt Nagy is 1-3 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more.

• Rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.

Baltimore Ravens (-8) at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET

• Since the start of the 2017 season, Baltimore is 21-9-3 ATS in road games, the best such cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• Since the 1970 merger, home underdogs of at least seven points are 91-59-4 ATS in September/August games (.607). In the last 25 seasons, they are 37-21 ATS (.638).

• As of Thursday, Detroit is an 8-point underdog after closing as a 9.5-point underdog in Week 1 and an 11.5-point underdog in Week 2. The only teams in the last 40 seasons to be underdogs of at least eight points in each of their first three games of a season are the 2008 Rams, the 2002 Texans and the 1990 Cardinals.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5.5), 1 p.m. ET

• The under is 25-17 in Carson Wentz starts since 2018, including the playoffs.

• Tennessee has gone 13-4-1 to the over since the start of last season. The over is 22-5-1 in the regular season in Ryan Tannehill starts since he joined the team.

• Indianapolis is 13-7 ATS against Tennessee since the start of the 2011 season.

• Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS over its past five road games. The over is also 4-1 over the Colts' past five road games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5), 1 p.m. ET

• Kansas City has gone 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games dating back to last season, including playoffs.

• The Chiefs are 0-2 ATS. Since 2010, teams to start 0-2 ATS are 50-33 ATS in their third game of the season (.602).

• Kansas City is 19-10 ATS in September under Andy Reid (11-4 ATS since 2017 and 8-4 ATS with Patrick Mahomes starting).

• Kansas City has covered four consecutive games following a straight-up loss with Mahomes. Mahomes is 4-1 ATS in his career after a loss.

• Kansas City has covered just one of its past nine games as a favorite dating back to last season.

• Kansas City is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS vs. the Chargers since the start of the 2014 season.

• Kansas City is 1-5 ATS against AFC West opponents since the start of last season.

• The Chargers 20-10-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2015 season.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3), 1 p.m. ET

• Since the start of the 2018 season, New Orleans is 11-4 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3. Over that same time span, New Orleans is 18-7 ATS on the road.

• New England has failed to cover in five of its past seven games as a favorite.

• New Orleans is 29-12 ATS on the road since the start of the 2016 season, the best road cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• New Orleans is also 6-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2018 season, the third-best mark in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3), 1 p.m. ET

• New York is 6-12 ATS in September since 2017 and 10-19-1 ATS since 2013.

• The Giants are 13-4-1 to the under since the start of last season, the highest under percentage in the NFL.

• Atlanta is 0-2 ATS. Since 2010, teams to start 0-2 ATS are 50-33 ATS in their third game of the season (.602).

• Since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 7-16-1 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, Atlanta is 3-10 ATS in the month of September. That's tied with the Eagles for the second-worst in the NFL over that span.

• The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings between these two teams.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), 1 p.m. ET

• Cincinnati has won just one of its past 17 road games straight up (1-15-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) since the start of the 2019 season.

• Pittsburgh is 24-11-1 ATS against Cincinnati since the start of the 2004 season.

• Pittsburgh has failed to cover in its last four games as a favorite and its last three as a home favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 9-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2018 season.

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET

• Since the 1970 merger, home underdogs of at least seven points are 91-59-4 ATS in September/August games (.607). In the last 25 seasons, they are 37-21 ATS (.638).

• Arizona has not had a road game go over the total since the start of last season (0-8-1 to the over). Arizona is the only team in the NFL to not have one game go over on the road over that span. Every other team has gone over at least once.

• Jacksonville is 0-2 ATS.

• Rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.

• Arizona is 7-3 ATS in games played at 1 p.m. ET under Kliff Kingsbury.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-10), 1 p.m. ET

• New York has covered just one game in September since 2019, going a league-worst 1-7 ATS over that span.

• The Jets are 0-2 ATS.

• Rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 ATS this season when not facing other rookie quarterbacks.

• The Jets are 6-12 ATS since the start of last season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL.

• Denver is a double-digit favorite for the first time since 2017 when they were 13.5-point favorites at home against the Giants. Denver did not cover that game.

Teddy Bridgewater is 37-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 15-8 ATS as a favorite. He has never been a double-digit favorite. The only time he has been favored by at least a touchdown, he lost outright as an 8-point favorite with New Orleans in 2018 against Carolina.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-4), 4:05 p.m. ET

• Miami is 12-6 ATS since the start of last season, tied with the Bills for the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• Las Vegas is 14-4 to the over since the start of last season, the highest over percentage in the NFL.

• Since the start of last season, Miami is 5-0 ATS following a straight-up loss.

• All seven of the matchups between these two teams have gone over the total since the start of the 2010 season.

• Brian Flores is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET

Tom Brady is 202-137-7 ATS in his career, including the playoffs (.596).

• Tampa Bay covered eight of its last 11 games dating back to last season, including the playoffs.

• In the last 15 seasons, the under is 51-32-2 in games with a total of 55 or higher.

• The Rams are 10-5-1 ATS in games in September since Sean McVay became head coach in 2017.

• Sean McVay is 37-27-2 ATS in his career (regular season).

• The Rams have covered seven of their past eight meetings with Tampa Bay.

Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady have met three times since 2014. All three games have gone under the total.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET

• The over is 9-1 in Minnesota games that follow a loss since the start of last season.

• Minnesota is 7-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the second-worst cover percentage in the NFL.

• Minnesota is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2012 season, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span. The Vikings are 8-3 ATS under Mike Zimmer in that spot.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, Seattle is 14-6-2 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3.

• Seattle has failed to cover in six of its past seven road games.

• In the last 15 seasons, the under is 51-32-2 in games with a total of 55 or higher.

• Minnesota has not had a total of 55 or higher in a game since 2004, Randy Moss' final season with the team before he was dealt to Oakland.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), 8:20 p.m. ET

• Green Bay is 7-2 outright and ATS in September under Matt LaFleur, including 3-0 last season (1-1 this season).

• Since the start of the 2019 season, Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 7-10-2 ATS as a favorite since becoming the 49ers' starter.

• San Francisco is playing its home opener. It was 0-5 ATS as a home favorite last season.

Monday's game

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4), 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

• Philadelphia is 3-10 ATS in September since the start of the 2018 season, tied with Atlanta for the second-worst such cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

• Philadelphia has failed to cover in six of its past seven road games.

• Philadelphia is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games following a straight-up loss.

Dak Prescott has gone 2-5 ATS as a starter since the start of last season. Five of his seven starts went over the total.

• Dallas is 7-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the second-worst cover percentage in the NFL.

• Dallas is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season. Dallas is also 1-6 ATS as a favorite over that same span.