TAB Betting Blog: Inspired Blues to win third game in four weeks

Here are TAB.com.au's best betting options for the upcoming round of AFL.

Best bets

Margin: Collingwood to win by 1-39 points at $2

The Pies need a spark after underperforming for several weeks and a prime-time slot could rejuvenate the team's season.

The stat to avoid is the fact Collingwood has lost 11 of its last 12 encounters to Hawthorn, dating back to 2012. However, TAB punters are predicting Nathan Buckley's boys buck the trend, as they currently hold 85 percent of the money wagered on the margin market.

The average win margin between the two is no more than 17 points when the two powerhouse clubs clash.

Head-to-head: Carlton to win at $2.75

It's amazing how quickly things can change in the AFL. This time last year Melbourne humiliated Carlton by 109-points, yet now the Blues are full of confidence having upset Freo last week to win for a second time in three weeks.

The Demons are a shell of the team that made it to the Preliminary Final last season and although they are the TAB favourites, it's hard to trust them.

TAB punters are getting behind the Blues to win, as they hold most of the money wagered on the head to head market.

Value bets

Special: Shaun McKernan 10+ disposals and 1+ goal at $2.75

Punters have been all over the special involving Shaun McKernan this week as the Bombers play Sydney at the MCG on Saturday.

McKernan averages 11 disposals and a goal per game, and if those stats are anything to go by, he should be able to cover the TAB Special.

With Essendon's ruckman Tom Bellchamber's out with a calf injury for six weeks McKernan's skills will be utilised around the ground, including in the ruck. This means he should be able to find the ball a lot more than what he usually does.

Total Points Over/Under (Freo/Eagles): Over 155.5 points at $1.90

Fresh from suffering a stunning defeat, Freo can keep their finals hopes alive with an upset win over reigning premiers West Coast.

They have been competitive in almost every game this season and fell short against the Eagles by 13-points in Round 4 this year. When these two sides clash they are genuinely high-scoring affairs and with clear skies and a top of 17, we can expect clean footy.

TAB punters believe it could rain goals with the average total score between the two being 159 points.

Tri Bet (Roos/Saints): Either team by 29 points or less $1.80

With September still a possibility for both, this clash could come down to the wire.

On average, neither team wins by more than 29 points, and with this game a chance for the Roos to edge closer to the top eight, take the Tri Bet for a safe option as the Saints have been competitive most of the year.

Best multi:

Head to head: Collingwood to win at $1.44
Head to head: Geelong to win at $1.33
Margin: Adelaide to win by 1-39 points at $2.20
Line: Carlton +16.5 points at $1.90

Multi = $8