NRL Preview Finals Week 1: Brett Kimmorley verdict, TAB odds, Benji is back

Friday, September 8

Sydney Roosters vs. Brisbane Broncos, Allianz Stadium at 7:55pm (AEST)

Roosters: Michael Gordon, Joseph Manu, Latrell Mitchell, Mitchell Aubusson, Blake Ferguson, Luke Keary, Mitchell Pearce, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Jake Friend, Dylan Napa, Boyd Cordner, Aidan Guerra, Isaac Liu. Reserves: Kane Evans 15, Sio Siua Taukeiaho, Ryan Matterson, Connor Watson, Zane Tetevano, Victor Radley, Mitchell Cornish, Daniel Tupou

Broncos: Kodi Nikorima, Corey Oates, James Roberts, Tautau Moga, Jordan Kahu, Anthony Milford, Benji Marshall, Sam Thaiday, Ben Hunt, Adam Blair, Alex Glenn, Matt Gillett, Josh Mcguire. Reserves: David Mead, Jai Arrow, Joe Ofahengaue, Herman Essese, Jaydn Su'a, Tom Opacic, Jamayne Isaako, Sam Scarlett

Brett Kimmorley's Tip: Roosters

TAB verdict: The loss of Darius Boyd for the Broncos is big and there's little doubt the Roosters will now look to expose it as a weakness. But perhaps the biggest impact is the fact Kodi Nikorima won't play in the halves, because his form has been building and he's looked very dangerous of late. The Roosters will look to keep this game at a slow pace and grind the Broncos into submission, we could see a low-scoring affair with the Sydney side sealing it late. Tip: Sydney Roosters/Total Score Under 38.5 @ $3

TAB odds: Roosters $1.70, -2.5 @ $1.90, Broncos $2.20, +2.5 @ $1.90

Watch Brett Kimmorley's Roosters vs, Broncos preview

Saturday, September 9

Melbourne Storm vs. Parramatta Eels, AAMI Park at 4:10pm (AEST)

Storm: Billy Slater, Suliasi Vunivalu, William Chambers, Curtis Scott, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster, Cooper Cronk, Jesse Bromwich, Cameron Smith, Jordan McLean, Felise Kaufusi, Tohu Harris, Dale Finucane. Reserves: Kenneath Bromwich, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Tim Glasby, Slade Griffin, Jahrome Hughes, Robbie Rochow, Joe Stimson, Young Tonumaipea

Eels: Will Smith, Semi Radradra, Michael Jennings, Brad Takairangi, Kirisome Auva'a, Corey Norman, Mitchell Moses, Daniel Alvaro, Cameron King, Tim Mannah, Manu Ma'u, Tepai Moeroa, Nathan Brown. Reserves: Beau Scott, Kenny Edwards, Siosaia Vave, Suaia Matagi, Kaysa Pritchard, Josh Hoffman, David Gower, Frank Pritchard

Brett Kimmorley's tip: Storm

TAB verdict: Melbourne are the second shortest price of any team in history at the start of a finals series and they will justify that quote by beating a Parramatta side that has, for the most part, been a big beneficiary of a favourable late season draw. With this being Cronk's last season, the big three at the Storm know that they can't blow a title again, like they did last year. Tip: Melbourne 13+ @ $2

TAB odds: Storm $1.20, -12.5 @ $2, Eels $4.75, +12.5 @ $1.80

Watch Brett Kimmorley's Storm vs Eels preview

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs. Penrith Panthers, Allianz Stadium, 7:40pm (AEST)

Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic, Matthew Wright, Dylan Walker, Brian Kelly, Akuila Uate, Blake Green, Daly Cherry-Evans, Darcy Lussick, Apisai Koroisau, Martin Taupau, Frank Winterstein, Curtis Sironen, Jake Trbojevic. Reserves: Lewis Brown, Lloyd Perrett, Brenton Lawrence, Addin Fonua-blake, Shaun Lane, Cameron Cullen, Jarrad Kennedy, Kelepi Tanginoa

Panthers: Dean Whare, Josh Mansour, Tyrone Peachey, Waqa Blake, Dallin Watene Zelezniak, Tyrone May, Nathan Cleary, James Tamou, Peter Wallace, Regan Campbell-Gillard, Corey Harawira, Isaah Yeo, Trent Merrin. Reserves: Sione Katoa, Bryce Cartwright, Tim Browne, James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Viliame Kikau, Dylan Edwards, Jarome Luai

Brett Kimmorley's tip: Sea Eagles

TAB verdict: The biggest reason for what occurred last week between these two teams is a simple one, that can often be overlooked in rugby league analysis - one team was aggressive and physical, the other team wasn't. From the opening kick-off it was clear Manly were going to win last week, but it matters little to the outcome of this week's game. Penrith will no doubt show up this time, and their best is better than Manly, but they need to be on their game from the first minute and leave the off-field drama that's been occurring behind them. Tip: Penrith hd 2 hd @ $2.40

TAB odds: Sea Eagles $1.65, -3.5 @ $1.90, Panthers $2.30, +3.5 @ $1.90

Watch Brett Kimmorley's Sea Eagles vs Panthers preview

Sunday, September 10

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. North Queensland Cowboys, Allianz Stadium 4:10pm (AEST)

Sharks: Valentine Holmes, Sosaia Feki, Jack Bird, Ricky Leutele, Gerard Beale, James Maloney, Chad Townsend, Andrew Fifita, Jayden Brailey, Matt Prior, Luke Lewis, Wade Graham. Reserves: Paul Gallen, Jayson Bukuya, Chris Heighington, Jeremy Latimore, James Segeyaro, Kurt Capewell, Fa'amanu Brown, Jesse Ramien, Joseph Paulo

Cowboys: Lachlan Coote, Kyle Feldt, Javid Bowen, Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein, Te Maire Martin, Michael Morgan, John Asiata, Jake Granville, Scott Bolton, Gavin Cooper, Ethan Lowe, Jason Taumalolo. Reserves: Ben Hampton, Coen Hess, Corey Jensen, Shaun Fensom, Ray Thompson, Kyle Laybutt, Braeden Uele, Enari Tuala

Brett Kimmorley's tip: Sharks

TAB verdict: They continue to be gutsy on a weekly basis, but it really is a massive ask for North Queensland to come to Sydney and beat the reigning premiers, even if Cronulla aren't close to the team that went on that dream run last year. The Sharks will have to lift to make it a sure thing, as the Cowboys have proven they will hang in games even when they look gone and we expect them to do the same here, but, in the end, coming up short. Tip: Cronulla 1 - 12 @ 2.90

TAB odds: Sharks $1.36, -8.5 @ $2, Cowboys $3.25, +8.5 @ $1.80

Watch Brett Kimmorley's Knights vs Sharks preview