Who's going to draft a QB? Rating all 32 teams' chances

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Kiper says Rosen is NFL ready (1:15)

If drafted to the Giants at No. 2 overall, Mel Kiper could see Josh Rosen starting very early in his career, as he is the smartest QB in the 2018 draft. (1:15)

The 2018 NFL draft class is rich with potential quarterback talent. Which teams will go for the top-tier guys in Round 1? Which will hold out for a Day 3 prospect? Are there any teams that won't be in the market for a young arm?

NFL Nation reporters rated every team's likelihood of drafting a quarterback based on the following scale:

Here's their analysis for all 32 teams.

Go to: Mel Kiper's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0Insider | 2018 NFL Draft QB Class Primer


4: Very likely in the first three rounds

Arizona Cardinals

As of now, the Cardinals don't have a quarterback on their roster, making the need to add at least one long-term answer to the position a priority this offseason. While they'll likely sign a quarterback in free agency, they'll also address that need in the draft -- possibly as high as the first round, depending on how the first 14 picks fall before they pick at No. 15. They could potentially trade up to pick one of the top-tier quarterback prospects, but they could also wait until the second or third round to see who's available then. -- Josh Weinfuss

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have eight selections in the first five rounds of April's draft, giving general manager Brandon Beane a bounty of picks to potentially move up the board from the Bills' current first-round picks at Nos. 21 and 22. Beane said he has personally watched all of the quarterbacks that could potentially be selected in the first round, and any of them could be in play for Buffalo in this draft. The Bills have Tyrod Taylor under contract through next season at $18 million, but Beane has avoided calling Taylor a franchise quarterback. They could save most of Taylor's cap hit by trading or releasing him before a $6 million roster bonus is due in March. Buffalo also has 2017 fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman, but he is more of a developmental player than someone who will stand in Buffalo's way of drafting a high-level prospect this spring. -- Mike Rodak

Cleveland Browns

There might be no more sure thing in this draft. The Browns will take a quarterback, most likely with their first overall pick. (More than likely Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.) The drafted player will join a to-be-named veteran the team adds to compete and work with DeShone Kizer, making the Browns' quarterback group much more credible than it was when 2017 started. -- Pat McManamon

Denver Broncos

Until the team's top football decision-maker, John Elway, says differently, the Broncos will almost certainly pick a quarterback in this year's draft. The question is whether that'll be with the No. 5 overall pick. They'll also consider diving into free agency if they see the right guy. Washington's Kirk Cousins would certainly be an option if the Redskins don't use the franchise tag on him for the third year in a row. But even if the Broncos sign a quarterback in the open market -- either as a bridge to mentor a draft pick, or as the starter -- Elway is looking to revamp the position. Elway has taken a quarterback in five of his previous drafts, including all four who were on the roster this past season: Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly. -- Jeff Legwold

Jacksonville Jaguars

It appears -- at this point, anyway -- that the Jaguars will be bringing Blake Bortles back in 2018. Even if they don't, it's more likely they will pursue a veteran free agent because they're obviously at a point where they are competing for a title. That being said, that won't be a long-term solution, so expect them to draft a quarterback in April. They won't be in position to grab any of the top prospects, but a second- or third-round pick could yield them a developmental player who could sit and learn behind either Bortles or whatever veteran the team does acquire via free agency or trade. -- Mike DiRocco

New England Patriots

It isn't a given, but after trading Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco in surprising fashion, the Patriots will be scouring this year's quarterback class for the "next Garoppolo" in terms of developmental upside. The question will be whether the right opportunity presents itself, like it did in 2014, when Garoppolo was available late in the second round (the Patriots selected him 62nd overall). New England currently has Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer as quarterbacks under contract for 2018. -- Mike Reiss

New York Giants

The opportunity to draft a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick doesn't come often. It makes too much sense for the Giants to take a quarterback -- especially with top-tier talents like Darnold and Rosen available -- with their starter having just turned 37 years old and clearly being on the downside of his career. Even if Eli Manning hangs around for another year or two, new general manager Dave Gettleman explained at his introductory news conference that you can never have too many good players at one position. This is the Giants' chance to transition smoothly from Manning to the next franchise quarterback and be set at the position for the next decade and beyond. -- Jordan Raanan

New York Jets

The Jets need to rebuild at quarterback, which means they could draft one with the sixth overall pick. They're so desperate that it wouldn't be a shock if they try to trade up. The wild card: All bets are off if they sign Cousins in free agency. Otherwise, they'll make a big-time investment in the future because the organization has no confidence in Christian Hackenberg and/or Bryce Petty, the only two quarterbacks under contract. Josh Allen is the most realistic option in this year's class. -- Rich Cimini


3.5: Likely, but probably not on Day 1

Baltimore Ravens

Coach John Harbaugh said the team is considering drafting a quarterback, which is major news for a franchise that hasn't taken a passer in the first five rounds since selecting Joe Flacco in 2008. The timing is right to look for a potential quarterback of the future, and the best bet is Baltimore will look to take one in the third round -- where the Ravens expect to have a compensatory pick -- or the fourth round. Flacco turned 33 years old this month and has dealt with injuries the past two seasons, but the Ravens are married to him contractually for a couple of more years, so there isn't an urgency to draft a quarterback in the first round. The idea would be to add a young option who can back up Flacco and be groomed as a possible replacement. "It is something that we will [be] talking about for sure," Harbaugh said. "When you have a veteran quarterback at this stage, that is the time you are always looking for a young backup." -- Jamison Hensley

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger remains a high-level quarterback at age 35, so there isn't much urgency to prep a young quarterback for 2018 action. The team has fourth-round pick Josh Dobbs to develop and believes Landry Jones is a high-level backup. If the right player falls to the Steelers in the first three rounds, drafting a quarterback would not be a surprise. But that's hardly a given, especially with needs at inside linebacker and potentially safety and running back. -- Jeremy Fowler


3: Likely, but on Day 3

Chicago Bears

The Bears have their quarterback of the future in Mitchell Trubisky, but Chicago is expected to be in the market for a backup. The Mike Glennon experiment is likely over after one season and $18.5 million guaranteed. Barring a miracle, Glennon will not be on the roster in 2018. Veteran Mark Sanchez's future is also murky. Sanchez -- the Bears' third quarterback in 2017 -- is a free agent after playing on a one-year deal. Even if the Bears decide to re-sign Sanchez to serve as a mentor to Trubisky, Chicago still needs to address its quarterback depth chart. New head coach Matt Nagy just hired former Oregon Ducks coach Mark Helfrich to be the offensive coordinator, so Chicago ought to have a fairly good feel for the quarterback prospects in this year's draft. -- Jeff Dickerson

Green Bay Packers

It's not that the Packers need to find Aaron Rodgers' eventual replacement just yet, but it appears they need to create competition for the backup job considering Brett Hundley's uneven performance after Rodgers broke his collarbone. There were high hopes for Hundley, a former fifth-round pick, but after three years in the system, his performance had to be considered a disappointment. He has one more year left on his rookie contract, but any hope that they could trade him for a higher draft pick has faded. -- Rob Demovsky

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are definitely ready to draft a quarterback, with Drew Brees having turned 39 this month. They came very close to drafting Patrick Mahomes II in Round 1 last year, and they have been closely studying all of the top prospects for a few years now. But they won't force it if they don't find the right guy. And they don't have much ammo in this year's draft, since they're picking 27th in the first round and don't have a second-round pick. So they'll really have to fall in love with a guy to use a premium pick on one. -- Mike Triplett

Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers turns 37 in December and is signed through the 2019 season. General manager Tom Telesco hasn't drafted a quarterback since 2013, and the Chargers need to start developing a succession plan once Rivers is no longer on the team. Telesco said he likes how developmental prospect Cardale Jones improved during practice reps in his first season with the Chargers. However, Telesco needs to add more young talent for competition among this position group. -- Eric D. Williams

Tennessee Titans

The Titans hope Marcus Mariota will be their starting quarterback for a long time, but the cupboard behind him is rather bare. The 35-year-old Matt Cassel is a great veteran mentor and locker room presence, but he doesn't have much left as a quarterback. There's no viable backup plan for Mariota, who hasn't played 16 games in a season yet. It would help to draft a young prospect in the middle rounds to develop behind Mariota. He could be a long-term backup and good injury fill-in. -- Cameron Wolfe

Washington Redskins

This all depends on what happens with Kirk Cousins, of course. If they sign Cousins long term, Washington could opt to draft someone lower since backup Colt McCoy would be a free agent after next season. They have no other legitimate options on the roster to even replace McCoy. But they wouldn't have to draft one if both players return (though it would be smart). If Cousins leaves and they have to turn to McCoy as the starter? They'd have to draft somebody -- and it should be early. Even if they trade for a veteran and keep McCoy, they could take a quarterback. It adds up to this: Under most scenarios, it makes sense for Washington to draft a passer. The Redskins' offseason moves will dictate how high. -- John Keim


2: 50-50 chance

Carolina Panthers

There's no urgency to sign someone who can play right away, but general manager Marty Hurney likes using a lower-round pick to find a quarterback who can be developed for the future. Cam Newton is only 28 years old, but the way he takes hits, the team has to be prepared for injury at some point. Derek Anderson is the backup, but he's 34 and his contract is up. Garrett Gilbert currently is the developmental quarterback, but I can see Hurney selecting another quarterback in Rounds 5 through 7 to provide him competition and perhaps move into that No. 2 role in the next year or so. -- David Newton

Cincinnati Bengals

AJ McCarron finds out Feb. 15 whether he will be an unrestricted free agent or a restricted free agent but has repeatedly said he would like the chance to play elsewhere. The Bengals don't seem inclined to part with Andy Dalton anytime soon, but if McCarron is not on the roster by Day 1 of the draft, the Bengals would certainly look at their options for someone to back up Dalton. -- Katherine Terrell

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have expressed their support for Dak Prescott and believe he is the quarterback of the present and future. The search for another quarterback, likely on the third day of the draft, would give the Cowboys options behind Prescott. They might have found a backup as an undrafted free agent in Cooper Rush in 2017, but his presence would not deter them from using a mid- to late-round pick on a quarterback to develop, especially as they bring in a new quarterbacks coach. -- Todd Archer

Houston Texans

The Texans hope they finally have their long-term quarterback in Deshaun Watson but found last season that they need to find a reliable backup. Watson and Taylor Heinicke are the only quarterbacks under contract in Houston, and the team is unlikely to bring back Tom Savage. Without a first- or second-round pick, they could choose to prioritize late-round picks at other positions and sign a veteran quarterback instead. -- Sarah Barshop

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts currently feel very good about the progress Andrew Luck is making with his right shoulder during the rehab process. Luck, who missed the entire season, has also said he plans to take part in the team's offseason workouts in April. The Colts have Jacoby Brissett in case Luck isn't ready for the start of next season. Brissett, who was acquired from the Patriots a week before the start of the 2017 season, started 15 games. The Colts have more pressing needs than to draft a quarterback, with Luck and Brissett both being under the age of 28. The only way they would select one is if Luck suffers a setback with his shoulder and the team needs to shut him down again between now and the start of the draft. -- Mike Wells

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes II in the first round last year, so they have their long-term quarterback. But if they trade or release Alex Smith, Kansas City could be in the market for a younger, developmental passer. The only other quarterback on the roster is Tyler Bray, and he's a potential unrestricted free agent, so the Chiefs could be looking for some bodies at the game's most important position. -- Adam Teicher

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins need to make a decision on Ryan Tannehill, who counts $19.8 million against the cap in 2018 but would carry a dead cap hit of $4.6 million if cut. Even if they keep Tannehill, they will likely look closely at quarterbacks in this draft class. If Dolphins coach and quarterback whisperer Adam Gase falls in love with a prospect, it could give him justification to move on. -- ESPN.com

Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr (who signed a five-year, $125 million extension last offseason) is eager to get to work with Jon Gruden, and the feeling is mutual. Plus, at his QB Camp in 2016, Gruden also fell in love with Connor Cook, who will be entering his third NFL season in 2018 and owns something not even Carr does: a playoff start. EJ Manuel will be a free agent, so getting a third QB in-house could be a priority for Gruden, probably just not high in the draft. Then again, Gruden raved about Johnny Manziel a few years back, no? -- Paul Gutierrez

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are set up well at quarterback. They have a franchise QB in Carson Wentz, a quality backup in Nick Foles and are high on third-stringer Nate Sudfeld. The only reason this is not a "1" rating is because the Eagles are an extremely QB-centric organization and will always look to strengthen the position if the opportunity arises. -- Tim McManus

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are incredibly happy with how their quarterback depth chart turned out after the blockbuster trade for Jimmy Garoppolo and the strides made by rookie C.J. Beathard. Garoppolo is the clear-cut starter, with Beathard as the backup, and fellow 2017 rookie Nick Mullens is also around after spending the season on the practice squad. There's no chance the Niners will use a high pick on a quarterback unless something goes horribly wrong with Garoppolo's contract negotiations. But we can't entirely rule out that they'd take a late-round flier on a signal-caller to add more competition to develop behind Garoppolo. -- Nick Wagoner

Seattle Seahawks

General manager John Schneider learned under Ron Wolf, who drafted seven quarterbacks over a 10-year stretch with the Packers. It's a surprise, then, that Seattle has drafted only one QB -- Russell Wilson -- since Schneider and coach Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. Could it happen this year? Last year's backup, Austin Davis, is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent, while Trevone Boykin hasn't shown enough to inspire much confidence, so there could be a need. The Seahawks have limited draft capital (at least for now) and plenty of other holes to fill, so a later-round selection would seem the most likely scenario if they decide to take a QB to solidify the depth chart behind Wilson. -- Brady Henderson


1: Not likely

Atlanta Falcons

Although Matt Ryan didn't have another MVP-caliber season, he's still among the better quarterbacks in the league "We're damn fortunate we've got him," coach Dan Quinn said. Signing Ryan to a long-term deal as he moves into the final year of his contract is certain to be a priority for the Falcons. Veteran backup Matt Schaub still has one year left on his deal. The Falcons always could find a lower-round quarterback they'd like to develop, but they also signed Garrett Grayson, a former third-round pick of the Saints, to a reserve/futures deal. -- Vaughn McClure

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford is the highest-paid player in the NFL and the starter no matter who ends up being Detroit's next head coach. Jake Rudock is the likely backup, though if general manager Bob Quinn traded Rudock before the draft, then the Lions could look to take another quarterback in the later rounds for developmental purposes. If Rudock is on the roster, it would be surprising to see Detroit draft a passer unless someone unexpectedly fell and became too good of a value to pass up, like Brad Kaaya did last year. -- Michael Rothstein

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams traded up 14 spots to draft Jared Goff at No. 1 overall in 2016, and that move was finally validated in 2017. Goff thrived as a second-year quarterback under first-year head coach Sean McVay, making significant improvements in completion percentage (54.6 to 62.1), yards per attempt (5.3 to 8.0), touchdown-to-interception ratio (0.71 to 4.00) and passer rating (63.6 to 100.5). At 23 years old, the Rams only expect continued improvement from Goff. Behind him are Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen, both of whom are 25. They're very young here. -- Alden Gonzalez

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings will decide on their quarterback of the future before the draft. They have three starters to choose from between Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, who are all upcoming free agents. It's doubtful that Minnesota will be able to keep all three, given cap space, the amount of money Keenum earned himself for his next contract and so on. But the Vikings might be able to bring back two of the three -- one as the starter, the other as the backup (for a reduced price). Plus, Minnesota has rookie Kyle Sloter under contract for two more years. Drafting a quarterback is at the very bottom of the priority list this April. -- Courtney Cronin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are still all-in with quarterback Jameis Winston, who struggled with a shoulder injury throughout the 2017 season. But he's also still under league investigation for allegedly groping an Uber driver, creating some uncertainty about next year. If he's subject to a six-game suspension similar to Ezekiel Elliott's, the best-case scenario would be to re-sign backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, who won two of the three games he started in 2017. Fitzpatrick has indicated that he would like to come back. If he doesn't, the Bucs do have Ryan Griffin waiting in the wings as a third option. Overall, the team would prefer to have an experienced player behind Winston to help him along, not a rookie. -- Jenna Laine