How far will the top NBA draft prospects go in the tourney?

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Farnham compares UMBC's upset to 'Miracle on Ice' (2:24)

Jay Bilas explains went wrong for No. 1 Virginia in their monumental loss to No. 16 UMBC and Sean Farnham compares the upset to the "Miracle on Ice" and Buster Douglas' knockout of Mike Tyson. (2:24)

What are the odds the NCAA tournament breaks well for NBA fans hoping to see the best draft prospects?

Here's how far each player in the lottery of our recent 2018 mock draft is projected to go, according to FiveThirtyEight, and the possible matchups in which prospects could square off.


3. Jaren Jackson Jr. | PF/C | No. 3 Michigan State (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 83 percent

  • Elite Eight: 43 percent

  • Final Four: 26 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:


4. Marvin Bagley III | PF/C | No. 2 Duke (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 84 percent

  • Elite Eight: 48 percent

  • Final Four: 29 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Michigan State (Sweet 16): PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 3), SF/PF Miles Bridges (No. 11)

  • Syracuse (Sweet 16): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte' Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


6. Wendell Carter Jr. | C | No. 2 Duke (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 84 percent

  • Elite Eight: 48 percent

  • Final Four: 29 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Michigan State (Sweet 16): PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (No. 3), SF/PF Miles Bridges (No. 11)

  • Syracuse (Sweet 16): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte' Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


10. Mikal Bridges | SF | No. 1 Villanova (East)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 90 percent

  • Elite Eight: 70 percent

  • Final Four: 54 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • West Virginia (Sweet 16): SG/SF Jevon Carter (No. 50)

  • Florida (Elite Eight): SF Jalen Hudson (No. 41)

  • Purdue (Elite Eight): PG Vincent Edwards (No. 59)


11. Miles Bridges | SF/PF | No. 3 Michigan State (Midwest)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 83 percent

  • Elite Eight: 43 percent

  • Final Four: 26 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Syracuse (second round): SG Tyus Battle (No. 39)

  • Duke (Sweet 16): PF/C Marvin Bagley III (No. 4), C Wendell Carter Jr. (No. 6), SG Grayson Allen (No. 30), PG Trevon Duval (No. 48)

  • Kansas (Elite Eight): PG Devonte' Graham (No. 28), SG Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (No. 51)


13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG/SG | No. 5 Kentucky (South)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 71 percent

  • Elite Eight: 54 percent

  • Final Four: 25 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Cincinnati (Elite Eight): SF Jacob Evans (No. 24)


14. Robert Williams | PF/C | No. 7 Texas A&M (West)

How far will he go?

  • Sweet 16: 19 percent

  • Elite Eight: 7 percent

  • Final Four: 3 percent

Potential matchups with projected draft picks:

  • Ohio State (Sweet 16): SF Keita Bates-Diop (No. 23)